{ "ticker": { "uuid": "97fd730e-d21c-4844-b7a0-beac87b54e09", "symbol": "000677", "name": "CHTC Helon Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.536, "architecture_energy": 62.583, "architecture_maturity": 94.919, "architecture_confidence": 80.182, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.54, "rotation_up": 29.97, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 60.53, "rotation_down": 46.93, "downward_expansion": 76.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.658667, 1.663818, 2.069952, 2.622215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.7, "trend_reference": 3.263333, "distance_from_trend": -0.47906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.701603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.540739, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -59.05604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.586375, "excess_performance": -0.593774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.47906, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218488, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.540739, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.408729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.59056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129707, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.586375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.124952, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191384487, "relative_activity": 0.938559, "balance": 1.124952, "dry_up": 1.300037, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176923, "annualized_volatility": 0.661803, "from_high_reference": -0.707904, "from_low_reference": 0.231884 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.263333, "fair_value_reference": 3.701603, "structural_low": 1.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.003226, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.47619, "median_excess_return": 0.013515, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.507874, "worst_return": -0.291339, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025967, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.101066, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.454315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045833, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.132204, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.50996, "worst_return": -0.540598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Developing", "return": -0.05988, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064103, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.279121, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.330709, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.9, "volume": 30657400, "typical_volume": 26224947.85, "trend": 2.9, "fair_value": 3.026987, "relative_strength": -1.085331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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406878952, "typical_volume": 221164258.6, "trend": 3.539667, "fair_value": 3.723782, "relative_strength": -57.999624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.495382, "energy": 76.400803, "activity_lines": [ 1.684, 1.765455, 2.467905, 2.975871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.5, "volume": 236684239, "typical_volume": 224446184.1, "trend": 3.449, "fair_value": 3.715897, "relative_strength": -64.277812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.088109, "energy": 68.933635, "activity_lines": [ 1.628, 1.694182, 2.309286, 2.84428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.66, "volume": 225430572, "typical_volume": 221160894.4, "trend": 3.353, "fair_value": 3.708782, "relative_strength": -58.867173, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.309445, "energy": 64.079273, "activity_lines": [ 1.64, 1.670909, 2.179714, 2.72886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.7, "volume": 191384487, "typical_volume": 203913062.5, "trend": 3.263333, "fair_value": 3.701603, "relative_strength": -59.05604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.536012, "energy": 62.582993, "activity_lines": [ 1.658667, 1.663818, 2.069952, 2.622215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }