{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98005092-347a-4b4c-8483-1768c64e05c0", "symbol": "2840", "name": "iFreeETF NASDAQ100 (NON HEDGED)", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 88.45, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.788, "architecture_energy": 24.574, "architecture_maturity": 67.417, "architecture_confidence": 80.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.03, "rotation_up": 26.53, "upward_expansion": 59.78, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 28.8, "downward_expansion": 21.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 2678.0, 2702.672727, 2681.17619, 2596.29887 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2688.0, "trend_reference": 2488.411361, "distance_from_trend": 0.080207, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12361.465346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.78255, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.669977, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.211905, "excess_performance": 0.002646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080207, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064904, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.78255, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028768, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0467, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.211905, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.80747, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 805830, "relative_activity": 1.49678, "balance": 1.80747, "dry_up": 1.203122, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035314, "annualized_volatility": 0.163056, "from_high_reference": -0.056842, "from_low_reference": 0.369625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2488.411361, "fair_value_reference": 12361.465346, "structural_low": 2100.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054934, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004557, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.080312, "worst_return": -0.015094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.143344, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007136, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192476, "worst_return": 0.143051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.198834, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051642, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.292023, "worst_return": -0.924133, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05978, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090458, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.054512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.110614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", 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"energy": 50.616456, "activity_lines": [ 2727.066667, 2737.527273, 2649.880412, 2556.301127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2681.0, "volume": 280128, "typical_volume": 481230.4, "trend": 2464.300789, "fair_value": 12588.104819, "relative_strength": -4.081507, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.724826, "energy": 43.980812, "activity_lines": [ 2707.133333, 2727.490909, 2663.185714, 2571.088522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2643.0, "volume": 798951, "typical_volume": 504152.8, "trend": 2475.93881, "fair_value": 12474.067635, "relative_strength": -4.732506, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.893998, "energy": 30.41791, "activity_lines": [ 2682.866667, 2710.418182, 2670.957143, 2582.617503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2688.0, "volume": 805830, "typical_volume": 538375.55, "trend": 2488.411361, "fair_value": 12361.465346, "relative_strength": -4.669977, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.787545, "energy": 24.574019, "activity_lines": [ 2678.0, 2702.672727, 2681.17619, 2596.29887 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }