{ "ticker": { "uuid": "981c9a08-4b0c-4dff-9f7b-63d143e244c3", "symbol": "BAB3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Alibaba ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.36, "architecture_energy": 55.611, "architecture_maturity": 83.72, "architecture_confidence": 88.262, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.35, "rotation_up": 20.44, "upward_expansion": 6.83, "deceleration": 54.4, "rotation_down": 59.96, "downward_expansion": 77.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.8279, 2.008691, 2.043893, 2.333151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.548, "trend_reference": 2.824383, "distance_from_trend": -0.451916, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.380754, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.646636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.159581, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.613965, "excess_performance": -0.651894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.451916, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.377265, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.646636, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062214, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.721596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032795, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.613965, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.141854, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 151157, "relative_activity": 1.36181, "balance": 0.141854, "dry_up": 1.797632, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.26056, "annualized_volatility": 1.309073, "from_high_reference": -0.900769, "from_low_reference": 0.529644 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.824383, "fair_value_reference": 4.380754, "structural_low": 1.012, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.104364, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.080825, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 2.786029, "worst_return": -0.559259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013732, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031463, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.243233, "worst_return": -0.323228, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.264724, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.18266, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.993307, "worst_return": -0.53697, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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94449.45, "trend": 3.61565, "fair_value": 4.484069, "relative_strength": -60.519121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.013911, "energy": 29.304765, "activity_lines": [ 2.332733, 2.0764, 2.297462, 2.699994 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 2.2, "volume": 291393, "typical_volume": 106632.05, "trend": 3.39115, "fair_value": 4.460873, "relative_strength": -63.239428, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.98725, "energy": 28.296632, "activity_lines": [ 2.322467, 2.127455, 2.25744, 2.608661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 2.01, "volume": 148936, "typical_volume": 106838.15, "trend": 3.16615, "fair_value": 4.429943, "relative_strength": -65.933664, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.96156, "energy": 23.94862, "activity_lines": [ 2.235, 2.139909, 2.202074, 2.519555 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 1.719, "volume": 206642, "typical_volume": 109338.75, "trend": 2.990117, "fair_value": 4.404054, "relative_strength": -70.404466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.691555, "energy": 43.61832, "activity_lines": [ 2.040667, 2.094655, 2.124814, 2.42619 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 1.548, "volume": 151157, "typical_volume": 110997.15, "trend": 2.824383, "fair_value": 4.380754, "relative_strength": -72.159581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.359591, "energy": 55.611226, "activity_lines": [ 1.8279, 2.008691, 2.043893, 2.333151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }