{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9821e6a7-4f5e-45a7-ab02-d330238c7b9b", "symbol": "FOHW", "name": "Franklin Future of Health and Wellness UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.548, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.589, "architecture_energy": 59.701, "architecture_maturity": 21.362, "architecture_confidence": 51.012, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.96, "rotation_up": 74.77, "upward_expansion": 84.36, "deceleration": 58.29, "rotation_down": 11.74, "downward_expansion": 8.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.243333, 24.998182, 24.347405, 24.179269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.51, "trend_reference": 24.127834, "distance_from_trend": 0.057285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.759519, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073675, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.842693, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.046779, "excess_performance": -0.124113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.057285, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005368, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073675, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11201, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088427, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062002, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.046779, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.433378, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 271, "relative_activity": 0.320274, "balance": 0.433378, "dry_up": 0.71264, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026159, "annualized_volatility": 0.124276, "from_high_reference": -0.0196, "from_low_reference": 0.153255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.127834, "fair_value_reference": 23.759519, "structural_low": 22.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011871, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.004797, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.008651, "worst_return": -0.015091, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.014882, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034034, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.014882, "worst_return": 0.014882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.012157, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066875, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.012157, "worst_return": -0.012157, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053588, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072686, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.097725, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036801, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022783, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012756, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004061, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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"activity_lines": [ 25.072667, 24.616455, 24.054976, 24.016903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.209999, "volume": 552, "typical_volume": 858.3, "trend": 24.118334, "fair_value": 23.740801, "relative_strength": -7.441883, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.458888, "energy": 51.947634, "activity_lines": [ 25.131667, 24.798, 24.188881, 24.089484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.51, "volume": 271, "typical_volume": 846.15, "trend": 24.127834, "fair_value": 23.759519, "relative_strength": -8.842693, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.589193, "energy": 59.700618, "activity_lines": [ 25.243333, 24.998182, 24.347405, 24.179269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }