{ "ticker": { "uuid": "982aa6a5-ce1b-4bcb-afd8-7014158a66c5", "symbol": "ERO", "name": "Ero Copper Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.032, "architecture_energy": 16.022, "architecture_maturity": 20.735, "architecture_confidence": 80.279, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.1, "rotation_up": 43.72, "upward_expansion": 29.2, "deceleration": 40.25, "rotation_down": 26.9, "downward_expansion": 24.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.731333, 27.757455, 27.693952, 27.819613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.31, "trend_reference": 28.418, "distance_from_trend": 0.207333, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.567949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.753377, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.801704, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.120876, "excess_performance": -0.004749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.207333, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026155, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.753377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.250404, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.208017, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055742, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.120876, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.759985, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6858923, "relative_activity": 1.211563, "balance": 0.759985, "dry_up": 0.845827, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120316, "annualized_volatility": 0.741121, "from_high_reference": -0.137918, "from_low_reference": 1.566193 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.418, "fair_value_reference": 19.567949, "structural_low": 22.41, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.003218, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.048222, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.162264, "worst_return": -0.194946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.054164, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.115343, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.35283, "worst_return": -0.456996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.101539, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.098477, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.603636, "worst_return": -0.304872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.351378, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.138481, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.885395, "worst_return": -0.573565, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140666, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156204, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.143325, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013976, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.260999, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.635828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.105634, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035797, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.78, "volume": 822445, "typical_volume": 605382.85, "trend": 18.669667, "fair_value": 15.973582, "relative_strength": 15.400313, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.66971, "energy": 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27.409333, 27.703818, 27.707048, 28.139118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.58, "volume": 5061722, "typical_volume": 6089643.15, "trend": 28.456667, "fair_value": 19.416218, "relative_strength": -4.825007, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.099023, "energy": 35.874677, "activity_lines": [ 26.756, 27.335273, 27.484048, 27.954194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.13, "volume": 4167245, "typical_volume": 5870565.25, "trend": 28.388, "fair_value": 19.432756, "relative_strength": -9.280635, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.813983, "energy": 51.078215, "activity_lines": [ 25.632667, 26.696364, 27.144714, 27.675054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.98, "volume": 4107887, "typical_volume": 5694912.85, "trend": 28.321333, "fair_value": 19.450321, "relative_strength": -2.415231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.147341, "energy": 48.563408, "activity_lines": [ 25.476667, 26.472909, 27.029429, 27.519699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.91, "volume": 4019590, "typical_volume": 5606628.05, "trend": 28.25, "fair_value": 19.48359, "relative_strength": -0.770882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.176893, "energy": 38.218348, "activity_lines": [ 25.882, 26.441818, 27.01119, 27.428645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.31, "volume": 6858923, "typical_volume": 5661220.2, "trend": 28.418, "fair_value": 19.567949, "relative_strength": 20.801704, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.031866, "energy": 16.021746, "activity_lines": [ 28.731333, 27.757455, 27.693952, 27.819613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }