{ "ticker": { "uuid": "982b5d13-02a8-445d-b8da-ecf58a92cc97", "symbol": "00654R", "name": "Fubon NIFTY -1 Inverse Index ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 70.901, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.221, "architecture_energy": 33.956, "architecture_maturity": 37.137, "architecture_confidence": 70.149, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.99, "rotation_up": 24.27, "upward_expansion": 19.42, "deceleration": 46.37, "rotation_down": 54.83, "downward_expansion": 47.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.704667, 6.739818, 6.784, 6.79172 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.58, "trend_reference": 6.739667, "distance_from_trend": -0.023691, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.708077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019093, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.830453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018576, "excess_performance": -0.360736, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023691, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019093, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047583, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018576, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 604267, "relative_activity": 1.523477, "balance": 0.822561, "dry_up": 1.149834, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026654, "annualized_volatility": 0.20183, "from_high_reference": -0.109608, "from_low_reference": 0.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.739667, "fair_value_reference": 6.708077, "structural_low": 6.17, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031447, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.07966, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.035768, "worst_return": -0.049774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.100244, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.191747, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.019374, "worst_return": -0.104885, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.075392, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.301256, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066015, "worst_return": -0.08477, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007508, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047414, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003185, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001562, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 6.88, "volume": 233000, "typical_volume": 424773.55, "trend": 6.710667, "fair_value": 6.718077, "relative_strength": -24.208541, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.247158, "energy": 11.130094, "activity_lines": [ 6.792, 6.803636, 6.828714, 6.802538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.69, "volume": 646000, "typical_volume": 409723.55, "trend": 6.727, "fair_value": 6.713782, "relative_strength": -24.582536, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.40615, "energy": 4.947497, "activity_lines": [ 6.762667, 6.780182, 6.810762, 6.801204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.58, "volume": 604267, "typical_volume": 396636.9, "trend": 6.739667, "fair_value": 6.708077, "relative_strength": -26.830453, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.220869, "energy": 33.956355, "activity_lines": [ 6.704667, 6.739818, 6.784, 6.79172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }