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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.859, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.704, "architecture_energy": 52.72, "architecture_maturity": 38.603, "architecture_confidence": 74.99, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.34, "rotation_up": 60.94, "upward_expansion": 82.75, "deceleration": 51.17, "rotation_down": 15.86, "downward_expansion": 9.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.226666, 55.673766, 54.04892, 52.16501 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 58.099998, "trend_reference": 50.192768, "distance_from_trend": 0.157537, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.373823, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.153377, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.43453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.260548, "excess_performance": -0.085184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.157537, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042811, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.153377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174822, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148873, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.260548, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.766982, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2654865, "relative_activity": 1.160506, "balance": 2.766982, "dry_up": 1.308857, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08272, "annualized_volatility": 0.328379, "from_high_reference": -0.077778, "from_low_reference": 0.424331 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.192768, "fair_value_reference": 50.373823, "structural_low": 41.216963, 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1936811.0, "trend": 49.660447, "fair_value": 50.387156, "relative_strength": -12.723865, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.230237, "energy": 38.245793, "activity_lines": [ 54.406667, 53.879578, 52.526514, 50.985867 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 59.799999, "volume": 5206789, "typical_volume": 2172174.3, "trend": 49.962828, "fair_value": 50.384271, "relative_strength": -10.6083, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.258219, "energy": 51.826967, "activity_lines": [ 56.24, 54.956039, 53.404915, 51.640031 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 58.099998, "volume": 2654865, "typical_volume": 2287679.65, "trend": 50.192768, "fair_value": 50.373823, "relative_strength": -11.43453, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.703968, "energy": 52.720142, "activity_lines": [ 57.226666, 55.673766, 54.04892, 52.16501 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }