{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9836f4bd-8c21-4b6a-910d-744e0e7b8cec", "symbol": "UIW1", "name": "UBS MSCI Europe Socially Responsible UCITS ETF EUR acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 92.312, "architecture_energy": 92.914, "architecture_maturity": 29.436, "architecture_confidence": 86.538, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.33, "rotation_up": 75.41, "upward_expansion": 96.83, "deceleration": 42.25, "rotation_down": 17.9, "downward_expansion": 21.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.579466, 18.397127, 18.0204, 17.717673 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 19.063999, "trend_reference": 17.442733, "distance_from_trend": 0.092948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.904045, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.198689, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.589802, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108888, "excess_performance": 0.044248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092948, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032237, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.198689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091443, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.035898, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012511, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108888, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.875586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22808, "relative_activity": 4.415791, "balance": 1.875586, "dry_up": 1.717634, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017431, "annualized_volatility": 0.158003, "from_high_reference": -0.002512, "from_low_reference": 0.22677 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.442733, "fair_value_reference": 15.904045, "structural_low": 15.54, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.011739, "positive_rate": 0.62069, "directional_follow_through": 0.62069, "median_excess_return": -0.001227, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.072946, "worst_return": -0.104552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.02788, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.021841, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.07929, "worst_return": -0.05095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.046084, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.021334, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.120698, "worst_return": -0.056311, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028147, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040489, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016941, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009572, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034045, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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69.549454, "energy": 82.010857, "activity_lines": [ 18.210533, 17.992254, 17.583343, 17.410852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.156, "volume": 7222, "typical_volume": 5988.15, "trend": 17.283666, "fair_value": 15.80561, "relative_strength": 5.091266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.489683, "energy": 81.748073, "activity_lines": [ 18.2208, 18.058982, 17.667895, 17.470288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.271999, "volume": 4793, "typical_volume": 4995.75, "trend": 17.333466, "fair_value": 15.834648, "relative_strength": 4.481358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.1049, "energy": 81.649006, "activity_lines": [ 18.250133, 18.129236, 17.760933, 17.534051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.5, "volume": 664, "typical_volume": 4541.6, "trend": 17.3844, "fair_value": 15.867558, "relative_strength": 3.430351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.23201, "energy": 79.161695, "activity_lines": [ 18.335466, 18.219309, 17.868295, 17.609312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.063999, "volume": 22808, "typical_volume": 5165.1, "trend": 17.442733, "fair_value": 15.904045, "relative_strength": 3.589802, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.312428, "energy": 92.91357, "activity_lines": [ 18.579466, 18.397127, 18.0204, 17.717673 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }