{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98396e2c-b7d8-4c46-9ede-917c66f0d594", "symbol": "OTIS", "name": "Otis Worldwide Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.528, "architecture_energy": 22.981, "architecture_maturity": 91.879, "architecture_confidence": 66.522, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.42, "rotation_up": 24.53, "upward_expansion": 20.74, "deceleration": 52.96, "rotation_down": 32.36, "downward_expansion": 56.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 63.562667, 63.544, 63.487453, 65.048011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 64.300003, "trend_reference": 67.747294, "distance_from_trend": -0.050885, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 78.890032, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.184941, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.900487, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.149444, "excess_performance": -0.32369, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050885, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055054, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.184941, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011276, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015504, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.149444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.490975, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 680, "relative_activity": 5.32498, "balance": 0.490975, "dry_up": 4.042678, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031251, "annualized_volatility": 0.18382, "from_high_reference": -0.198735, "from_low_reference": 0.066335 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.747294, "fair_value_reference": 78.890032, "structural_low": 60.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.018926, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01049, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.141719, "worst_return": -0.117094, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003107, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.125263, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.141814, "worst_return": -0.078356, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03658, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.14653, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.158081, "worst_return": -0.098785, "sufficient": false }, { 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-25.190705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.360298, "energy": 28.616271, "activity_lines": [ 64.157333, 63.306545, 63.961162, 66.069947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 63.060001, "volume": 1069, "typical_volume": 77.9, "trend": 68.553259, "fair_value": 79.051531, "relative_strength": -27.425363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.837825, "energy": 28.916894, "activity_lines": [ 63.829333, 63.364364, 63.727195, 65.69321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.419998, "volume": 316, "typical_volume": 93.7, "trend": 68.167327, "fair_value": 78.960161, "relative_strength": -27.516215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.158961, "energy": 34.634751, "activity_lines": [ 63.316, 63.279272, 63.494548, 65.297516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.300003, "volume": 680, "typical_volume": 127.7, "trend": 67.747294, "fair_value": 78.890032, "relative_strength": -26.900487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.528125, "energy": 22.980706, "activity_lines": [ 63.562667, 63.544, 63.487453, 65.048011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }