{ "ticker": { "uuid": "983c2821-71b9-4c66-90c5-7c184de4b464", "symbol": "600108", "name": "Gansu Yasheng Industrial (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.117, "architecture_energy": 60.412, "architecture_maturity": 36.716, "architecture_confidence": 90.678, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.01, "rotation_up": 25.71, "upward_expansion": 11.18, "deceleration": 53.1, "rotation_down": 55.82, "downward_expansion": 84.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.999803, 3.06228, 3.368425, 3.654781 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.15, "trend_reference": 3.864446, "distance_from_trend": -0.184877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.047882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.182056, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.157754, "excess_performance": -0.11455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.184877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001177, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.424981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101821, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.157754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.147778, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 372134352, "relative_activity": 1.02845, "balance": 1.147778, "dry_up": 1.020298, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101452, "annualized_volatility": 0.73852, "from_high_reference": -0.560669, "from_low_reference": 0.149635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.864446, "fair_value_reference": 3.047882, "structural_low": 2.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.009331, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.001102, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.175732, "worst_return": -0.067114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003236, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.002608, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.368645, "worst_return": -0.173333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012201, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010886, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.332209, "worst_return": -0.066667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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3.001242, 3.204647, 3.63414, 3.821728 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.87, "volume": 423664341, "typical_volume": 496305551.7, "trend": 3.874446, "fair_value": 3.048397, "relative_strength": -15.639928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.343657, "energy": 87.813681, "activity_lines": [ 2.91744, 3.113858, 3.518362, 3.756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.02, "volume": 313815551, "typical_volume": 408076404.95, "trend": 3.864446, "fair_value": 3.047927, "relative_strength": -11.528255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.155315, "energy": 81.098606, "activity_lines": [ 2.932728, 3.07016, 3.429489, 3.700874 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.15, "volume": 372134352, "typical_volume": 361839935.9, "trend": 3.864446, "fair_value": 3.047882, "relative_strength": -10.182056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.117351, "energy": 60.412227, "activity_lines": [ 2.999803, 3.06228, 3.368425, 3.654781 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }