{ "ticker": { "uuid": "983f4829-063d-40de-a1b2-bc6867c6f287", "symbol": "UC46", "name": "UBS MSCI USA Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.07, "architecture_energy": 51.716, "architecture_maturity": 65.295, "architecture_confidence": 79.564, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.19, "rotation_up": 44.45, "upward_expansion": 66.66, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.91, "downward_expansion": 25.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 21778.6, 21820.954545, 21471.516667, 20893.952142 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22329.5, "trend_reference": 20231.80306, "distance_from_trend": 0.103683, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17849.108398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.251015, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.980152, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.179285, "excess_performance": 0.12805, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.103683, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.251015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055611, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039802, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008701, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179285, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.899773, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3272, "relative_activity": 0.295508, "balance": 0.899773, "dry_up": 0.166133, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021243, "annualized_volatility": 0.137836, "from_high_reference": -0.136807, "from_low_reference": 0.254537 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20231.80306, "fair_value_reference": 17849.108398, "structural_low": 17798.994141, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.000292, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.011476, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.123885, "worst_return": -0.090102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.002984, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.005711, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.11992, "worst_return": -0.172157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034391, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.046504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123262, "worst_return": -0.055824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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} ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }