{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9841bbf5-8fd7-44f7-8e03-1c6e8bad7c88", "symbol": "AI", "name": "Asian Insulators Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 78.466, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.067, "architecture_energy": 16.59, "architecture_maturity": 51.561, "architecture_confidence": 44.57, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.64, "rotation_up": 51.31, "upward_expansion": 38.55, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 19.91, "downward_expansion": 15.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.921333, 2.908, 2.901619, 2.907056 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.94, "trend_reference": 2.914, "distance_from_trend": 0.008922, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.259237, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.097948, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.929909, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.013333, "excess_performance": -0.178992, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002314, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.097948, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040606, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149299, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030822, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.013333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.861082, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 594200, "relative_activity": 0.987314, "balance": 0.861082, "dry_up": 1.30397, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023548, "annualized_volatility": 0.088015, "from_high_reference": -0.107576, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.914, "fair_value_reference": 3.259237, "structural_low": 2.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.015161, "positive_rate": 0.291667, "directional_follow_through": 0.291667, "median_excess_return": -0.026084, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.142857, "worst_return": -0.086207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036393, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.056019, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.03252, "worst_return": -0.162621, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.053467, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1396, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.028902, "worst_return": -0.224194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.092486, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011428, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", 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2.886909, 2.896543, 2.906264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.88, "volume": 871100, "typical_volume": 727330.0, "trend": 2.912776, "fair_value": 3.284055, "relative_strength": -19.59707, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.685175, "energy": 33.334582, "activity_lines": [ 2.878667, 2.884727, 2.893327, 2.904062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.94, "volume": 753400, "typical_volume": 684910.0, "trend": 2.913421, "fair_value": 3.278052, "relative_strength": -18.14143, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.235407, "energy": 10.196542, "activity_lines": [ 2.898667, 2.894182, 2.896571, 2.905818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.92, "volume": 781600, "typical_volume": 684935.0, "trend": 2.914044, "fair_value": 3.272025, "relative_strength": -18.27265, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.47748, "energy": 8.728119, "activity_lines": [ 2.908, 2.899273, 2.898095, 2.906243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.9, "volume": 1009900, "typical_volume": 716910.0, "trend": 2.913355, "fair_value": 3.26566, "relative_strength": -17.25395, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.811087, "energy": 11.495999, "activity_lines": [ 2.909333, 2.900364, 2.89781, 2.905337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.94, "volume": 594200, "typical_volume": 601835.0, "trend": 2.914, "fair_value": 3.259237, "relative_strength": -14.929909, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.066572, "energy": 16.590061, "activity_lines": [ 2.921333, 2.908, 2.901619, 2.907056 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }