{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98443d12-8fcf-44f1-a4da-4a4e349c1154", "symbol": "200250", "name": "Kiwoom Kosef NIFTY 50 India ETF - Equity - Derivatives (Synth)", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.664, "architecture_energy": 65.81, "architecture_maturity": 7.792, "architecture_confidence": 82.876, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.6, "rotation_up": 11.38, "upward_expansion": 16.14, "deceleration": 35.3, "rotation_down": 69.02, "downward_expansion": 84.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 22573.666667, 22973.0, 23121.642857, 23296.215054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22580.0, "trend_reference": 23703.666667, "distance_from_trend": -0.047405, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24003.884102, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.4756, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.115724, "excess_performance": -0.345552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047405, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059319, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284756, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.230209, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115724, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.727506, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101298, "relative_activity": 0.988924, "balance": 0.727506, "dry_up": 0.633568, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031307, "annualized_volatility": 0.144658, "from_high_reference": -0.164568, "from_low_reference": 0.025199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23703.666667, "fair_value_reference": 24003.884102, "structural_low": 22025.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.016567, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.014706, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.094626, "worst_return": -0.044462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053561, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000737, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.21835, "worst_return": -0.099034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.097692, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.063989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.113197, "worst_return": -0.021625, "sufficient": false }, { 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23554.272727, 23426.642857, 23676.374131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22850.0, "volume": 51610, "typical_volume": 120438.15, "trend": 24062.1, "fair_value": 23956.258489, "relative_strength": -36.695592, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.886575, "energy": 16.544151, "activity_lines": [ 23489.0, 23453.272727, 23367.809524, 23590.533333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22195.0, "volume": 34829, "typical_volume": 111899.05, "trend": 23934.166667, "fair_value": 23972.454077, "relative_strength": -36.286574, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.402055, "energy": 48.556231, "activity_lines": [ 23003.333333, 23240.090909, 23256.02381, 23470.075269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22470.0, "volume": 71855, "typical_volume": 106176.5, "trend": 23810.666667, "fair_value": 23988.361353, "relative_strength": -33.454993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.881402, "energy": 62.223556, "activity_lines": [ 22719.666667, 23089.909091, 23181.309524, 23375.612903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22580.0, "volume": 101298, "typical_volume": 102432.55, "trend": 23703.666667, "fair_value": 24003.884102, "relative_strength": -28.4756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.663703, "energy": 65.809557, "activity_lines": [ 22573.666667, 22973.0, 23121.642857, 23296.215054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }