{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9845e3a6-7550-431c-930a-0b39aa1b237f", "symbol": "6185", "name": "Plastron Precision Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 65.097, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -8.745, "architecture_energy": 9.269, "architecture_maturity": 24.598, "architecture_confidence": 54.391, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.02, "rotation_up": 24.3, "upward_expansion": 22.3, "deceleration": 61.7, "rotation_down": 47.26, "downward_expansion": 35.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.82, 13.971614, 13.903054, 13.882944 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.7, "trend_reference": 13.937102, "distance_from_trend": -0.017012, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.090104, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.09212, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.285682, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018149, "excess_performance": -0.459521, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017012, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023831, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.09212, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044958, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.342857, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060666, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018149, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.241897, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 482825, "relative_activity": 0.433849, "balance": 1.241897, "dry_up": 0.776863, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053427, "annualized_volatility": 0.197699, "from_high_reference": -0.215066, "from_low_reference": 0.047551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.937102, "fair_value_reference": 15.090104, "structural_low": 13.078117, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.010067, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.518519, "median_excess_return": -0.013954, "regime_survival": 0.592593, "best_return": 0.134831, "worst_return": -0.114458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.075938, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.447155, "worst_return": -0.114286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.020942, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.109218, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.491803, "worst_return": -0.141176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031319, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.181597, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264034, "worst_return": -0.123191, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040698, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049563, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006472, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02027, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042071, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103659, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053968, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056291, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014716, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 15.549397, "volume": 14388000, "typical_volume": 13252700.0, "trend": 16.280969, "fair_value": 12.767572, "relative_strength": 1.49283, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", 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13.925777, 13.931724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.9, "volume": 1323889, "typical_volume": 1120496.65, "trend": 13.999407, "fair_value": 15.133656, "relative_strength": -31.157943, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.041798, "energy": 11.989113, "activity_lines": [ 14.13, 14.092897, 13.932147, 13.922478 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.65, "volume": 830171, "typical_volume": 1126503.25, "trend": 13.96337, "fair_value": 15.109945, "relative_strength": -33.174695, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.123489, "energy": 8.079363, "activity_lines": [ 13.933333, 14.029373, 13.914266, 13.899935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.7, "volume": 482825, "typical_volume": 1112886.5, "trend": 13.937102, "fair_value": 15.090104, "relative_strength": -34.285682, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.744689, "energy": 9.269387, "activity_lines": [ 13.82, 13.971614, 13.903054, 13.882944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }