{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9850c085-b2cc-40ba-a992-f4a873398df6", "symbol": "688298", "name": "Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.98, "architecture_energy": 36.785, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.931, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.53, "rotation_up": 24.15, "upward_expansion": 16.56, "deceleration": 65.85, "rotation_down": 38.07, "downward_expansion": 61.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.954667, 18.942727, 19.951524, 20.798817 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.370001, "trend_reference": 21.984667, "distance_from_trend": -0.118931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.766731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.326653, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.05915, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.209388, "excess_performance": -0.166184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086345, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.326653, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086709, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.209388, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.518826, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7099977, "relative_activity": 0.940398, "balance": 0.518826, "dry_up": 1.080267, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086295, "annualized_volatility": 0.367795, "from_high_reference": -0.366993, "from_low_reference": 0.110665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.984667, "fair_value_reference": 28.766731, "structural_low": 17.440001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.001805, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.00356, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.27673, "worst_return": -0.267258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.067544, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.098799, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.542344, "worst_return": -0.427983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.116323, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.183755, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.299145, "worst_return": -0.412047, "sufficient": true }, 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19.110666, 19.443636, 20.675095, 21.495075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.870001, "volume": 8731779, "typical_volume": 7580308.05, "trend": 22.294667, "fair_value": 29.018141, "relative_strength": -23.474948, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.864351, "energy": 49.789049, "activity_lines": [ 18.749333, 19.044364, 20.329952, 21.195892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.889999, "volume": 5813168, "typical_volume": 7584531.4, "trend": 22.12, "fair_value": 28.890192, "relative_strength": -18.658143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.802485, "energy": 41.482085, "activity_lines": [ 18.819333, 18.921818, 20.107667, 20.976236 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.370001, "volume": 7099977, "typical_volume": 7549968.75, "trend": 21.984667, "fair_value": 28.766731, "relative_strength": -18.05915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.979663, "energy": 36.784737, "activity_lines": [ 18.954667, 18.942727, 19.951524, 20.798817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }