{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98551d32-be34-4dd9-af86-9e1d2b273fae", "symbol": "IAG", "name": "International Consolidated Airlines Group S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.947, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.652, "architecture_energy": 24.687, "architecture_maturity": 63.568, "architecture_confidence": 76.256, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.89, "rotation_up": 27.31, "upward_expansion": 64.12, "deceleration": 88.22, "rotation_down": 28.25, "downward_expansion": 16.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.149733, 5.238585, 5.036622, 4.882758 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.158, "trend_reference": 4.766649, "distance_from_trend": 0.082102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.241808, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.591088, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.126379, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.023007, "excess_performance": -0.101424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.591088, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10195, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043985, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.023007, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.795906, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32804878, "relative_activity": 0.927556, "balance": 0.795906, "dry_up": 0.878496, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063219, "annualized_volatility": 0.353947, "from_high_reference": -0.096356, "from_low_reference": 0.350262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.766649, "fair_value_reference": 3.241808, "structural_low": 3.82, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012594, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.019983, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.204011, "worst_return": -0.144497, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.071019, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017167, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.231683, "worst_return": -0.154167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.155437, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.092491, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.84047, "worst_return": -0.10797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.502234, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174515, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.386306, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.137132, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.110798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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4.966274, 4.836798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.062, "volume": 33577174, "typical_volume": 37187423.25, "trend": 4.757815, "fair_value": 3.220592, "relative_strength": -5.255295, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.775505, "energy": 33.397407, "activity_lines": [ 5.194133, 5.246117, 4.999177, 4.856939 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.158, "volume": 32804878, "typical_volume": 35366987.3, "trend": 4.766649, "fair_value": 3.241808, "relative_strength": -5.126379, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.651901, "energy": 24.687161, "activity_lines": [ 5.149733, 5.238585, 5.036622, 4.882758 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }