{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9857213e-43b6-4c93-aa57-53edb8d3240d", "symbol": "STELLA", "name": "Stella X Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.429, "architecture_energy": 28.518, "architecture_maturity": 51.317, "architecture_confidence": 62.48, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.62, "rotation_up": 38.42, "upward_expansion": 69.81, "deceleration": 70.6, "rotation_down": 26.01, "downward_expansion": 7.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.264667, 0.264545, 0.258381, 0.243226 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.26, "trend_reference": 0.223, "distance_from_trend": 0.165919, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.194235, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.338583, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 10.850534, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.368421, "excess_performance": 0.176096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.165919, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188277, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.338583, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179962, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.108505, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12881, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.368421, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.118757, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6658700, "relative_activity": 0.169351, "balance": 19.118757, "dry_up": 0.149858, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136095, "annualized_volatility": 0.602839, "from_high_reference": -0.1875, "from_low_reference": 1.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.223, "fair_value_reference": 0.194235, "structural_low": 0.13, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037037, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 0.18, "volume": 54044700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 0.18, "volume": 21003300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": 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0.206667, "fair_value": 0.190741, "relative_strength": 15.943264, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.974172, "energy": 29.307207, "activity_lines": [ 0.261333, 0.266727, 0.246714, 0.22972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.27, "volume": 3667500, "typical_volume": 42694755.0, "trend": 0.210667, "fair_value": 0.191707, "relative_strength": 14.341081, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.51083, "energy": 26.701649, "activity_lines": [ 0.262667, 0.268364, 0.25081, 0.233806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.26, "volume": 11356500, "typical_volume": 41597335.0, "trend": 0.214667, "fair_value": 0.19253, "relative_strength": 9.523479, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.030293, "energy": 29.602137, "activity_lines": [ 0.262667, 0.267091, 0.253429, 0.236989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.27, "volume": 1886400, "typical_volume": 39559960.0, "trend": 0.218667, "fair_value": 0.193452, "relative_strength": 14.614295, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.946668, "energy": 31.334114, "activity_lines": [ 0.266667, 0.266727, 0.256571, 0.240559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.26, "volume": 6658700, "typical_volume": 39318995.0, "trend": 0.223, "fair_value": 0.194235, "relative_strength": 10.850534, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.429422, "energy": 28.518258, "activity_lines": [ 0.264667, 0.264545, 0.258381, 0.243226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }