{ "ticker": { "uuid": "985be5c3-34d8-46fa-8e07-7adca33cbdc1", "symbol": "DMRC", "name": "Digimarc Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 86.685, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.889, "architecture_energy": 24.47, "architecture_maturity": 9.089, "architecture_confidence": 62.524, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.12, "rotation_up": 16.29, "upward_expansion": 15.68, "deceleration": 60.86, "rotation_down": 58.27, "downward_expansion": 43.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.832, 7.325273, 8.535905, 8.123151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.95, "trend_reference": 7.4745, "distance_from_trend": 0.063616, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.868814, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.619049, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.57074, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.469501, "excess_performance": 0.282047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0308, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.619049, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032929, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115707, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008411, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.469501, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.77393, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 465692, "relative_activity": 0.458004, "balance": 0.77393, "dry_up": 0.615458, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.32607, "annualized_volatility": 1.131093, "from_high_reference": -0.544932, "from_low_reference": 0.953317 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.4745, "fair_value_reference": 20.868814, "structural_low": 4.07, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.078728, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05137, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.776408, "worst_return": -0.188991, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.140912, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.060126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.757042, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.330212, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.381118, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.542254, "worst_return": -0.483817, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10899, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064823, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.217887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124771, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.46003, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058985, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.461538, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.477551, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.240102, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.21189, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 32.5, "volume": 369477, "typical_volume": 602078.9, "trend": 24.814667, "fair_value": 28.347628, "relative_strength": 29.400373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.532426, 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8.837273, 8.956143, 8.242043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.95, "volume": 769131, "typical_volume": 1123790.7, "trend": 7.421833, "fair_value": 21.229199, "relative_strength": -32.125549, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.295705, "energy": 34.782259, "activity_lines": [ 6.468667, 8.085273, 8.73519, 8.145194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.56, "volume": 502136, "typical_volume": 1058171.5, "trend": 7.429833, "fair_value": 21.03625, "relative_strength": -24.322771, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.860275, "energy": 35.801576, "activity_lines": [ 6.381333, 7.514182, 8.569429, 8.089591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.95, "volume": 465692, "typical_volume": 1016785.0, "trend": 7.4745, "fair_value": 20.868814, "relative_strength": -11.57074, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.889133, "energy": 24.469914, "activity_lines": [ 6.832, 7.325273, 8.535905, 8.123151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }