{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98674f41-eba6-4b0b-9087-1651973befa4", "symbol": "DB58", "name": "Xtrackers - MSCI Indonesia Swap UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.322, "architecture_energy": 31.585, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.78, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.32, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 23.19, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 30.05, "downward_expansion": 61.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.7768, 7.666455, 7.832033, 8.287419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.872, "trend_reference": 9.0349, "distance_from_trend": -0.128712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.561904, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.373343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.050942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.27846, "excess_performance": -0.452707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135378, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.373343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038729, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.380509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.27846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.038191, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052562, "annualized_volatility": 0.341358, "from_high_reference": -0.361868, "from_low_reference": 0.164669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.0349, "fair_value_reference": 12.561904, "structural_low": 6.759, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.019463, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.022743, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.099849, "worst_return": -0.230445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058774, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.065216, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.135648, "worst_return": -0.22966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.006798, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.158805, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067594, "worst_return": -0.147838, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008146, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.329344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.105509, "worst_return": -0.121801, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062701, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047903, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044304, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011644, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021858, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051404, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.112386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.060037, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009645, "active": false }, { 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"energy": 98.088204, "activity_lines": [ 7.526133, 8.123, 8.861729, 9.488561 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 7.548, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 596.8, "trend": 10.133633, "fair_value": 12.945519, "relative_strength": -43.265732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.455413, "energy": 85.322602, "activity_lines": [ 7.425333, 7.934055, 8.674248, 9.312645 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 7.777, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 362.95, "trend": 9.995067, "fair_value": 12.898192, "relative_strength": -43.199342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.891818, "energy": 70.204238, "activity_lines": [ 7.4832, 7.820691, 8.527319, 9.160604 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 7.438, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 362.95, "trend": 9.845933, "fair_value": 12.848077, "relative_strength": -43.894882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.26521, "energy": 67.683036, "activity_lines": [ 7.468867, 7.681164, 8.362786, 8.995632 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 7.329, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 362.95, "trend": 9.693833, "fair_value": 12.798737, "relative_strength": -45.312388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.185585, "energy": 66.321572, "activity_lines": [ 7.438867, 7.565018, 8.204405, 8.833249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 7.449, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 362.95, "trend": 9.555467, "fair_value": 12.749808, "relative_strength": -42.932536, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.790895, "energy": 63.232858, "activity_lines": [ 7.465133, 7.501345, 8.07441, 8.688422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.916, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 362.95, "trend": 9.427467, "fair_value": 12.703615, "relative_strength": -37.410743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.600347, "energy": 54.961441, "activity_lines": [ 7.601067, 7.544382, 8.00581, 8.582649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.777, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 299.35, "trend": 9.301233, "fair_value": 12.655455, "relative_strength": -38.591405, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.59421, "energy": 49.39809, "activity_lines": [ 7.666133, 7.577909, 7.937962, 8.476168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.67, "volume": 4120, "typical_volume": 505.35, "trend": 9.166367, "fair_value": 12.607686, "relative_strength": -38.604101, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.812768, "energy": 41.856346, "activity_lines": [ 7.695533, 7.603109, 7.870529, 8.370927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.872, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 505.35, "trend": 9.0349, "fair_value": 12.561904, "relative_strength": -38.050942, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.322375, "energy": 31.585203, "activity_lines": [ 7.7768, 7.666455, 7.832033, 8.287419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }