{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9868334b-e8e6-4920-88df-16cb72348fce", "symbol": "ZOE", "name": "Zoetis Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.308, "architecture_energy": 71.314, "architecture_maturity": 84.977, "architecture_confidence": 95.549, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 15.15, "deceleration": 44.24, "rotation_down": 53.89, "downward_expansion": 88.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.866105, 66.351529, 70.191134, 77.173258 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 64.82, "trend_reference": 86.393533, "distance_from_trend": -0.249712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 136.24076, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.524225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.539202, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.397183, "excess_performance": -0.461822, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.249712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125592, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.524225, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01133, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.395392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.397183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.597824, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31062, "relative_activity": 3.336878, "balance": 0.597824, "dry_up": 1.312079, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060922, "annualized_volatility": 0.510889, "from_high_reference": -0.520631, "from_low_reference": 0.053299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.393533, "fair_value_reference": 136.24076, "structural_low": 61.540001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.015286, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.015308, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.168268, "worst_return": -0.300565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.057643, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.026768, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.130401, "worst_return": -0.332459, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.138138, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.218071, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.131623, "worst_return": -0.370938, "sufficient": true }, { 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67.353909, 76.100708, 83.29921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 66.690002, "volume": 5661, "typical_volume": 7446.15, "trend": 90.384213, "fair_value": 138.115039, "relative_strength": -36.481665, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.502496, "energy": 62.441518, "activity_lines": [ 66.574912, 67.187997, 74.403079, 81.688944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.139999, "volume": 6685, "typical_volume": 7628.6, "trend": 89.14518, "fair_value": 137.484315, "relative_strength": -36.924661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.028548, "energy": 61.768684, "activity_lines": [ 66.337343, 66.980083, 72.86014, 80.124801 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.4, "volume": 5447, "typical_volume": 7825.95, "trend": 87.823739, "fair_value": 136.895065, "relative_strength": -37.190881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.986742, "energy": 58.728926, "activity_lines": [ 66.362005, 66.783079, 71.520574, 78.65737 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.82, "volume": 31062, "typical_volume": 9308.7, "trend": 86.393533, "fair_value": 136.24076, "relative_strength": -39.539202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.307517, "energy": 71.313815, "activity_lines": [ 65.866105, 66.351529, 70.191134, 77.173258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }