{ "ticker": { "uuid": "986b6dc7-ecf6-471d-8878-8af104929b0e", "symbol": "DEOP34", "name": "Diageo plc", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 60.944, "architecture_energy": 67.901, "architecture_maturity": 12.879, "architecture_confidence": 69.86, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.11, "rotation_up": 72.35, "upward_expansion": 60.8, "deceleration": 24.21, "rotation_down": 17.18, "downward_expansion": 21.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.116667, 24.421819, 23.74926, 23.616321 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.25, "trend_reference": 23.987915, "distance_from_trend": 0.135989, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.048031, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175443, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.394889, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.016739, "excess_performance": 0.040309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135989, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037534, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175443, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16275, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003949, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.314552, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.473584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14051, "relative_activity": 1.933602, "balance": 10.473584, "dry_up": 0.772732, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046267, "annualized_volatility": 0.325805, "from_high_reference": -0.195193, "from_low_reference": 0.32132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.987915, "fair_value_reference": 33.048031, "structural_low": 20.623311, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029822, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025707, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.016184, "worst_return": -0.039037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.023136, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.003934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.022118, "worst_return": -0.024155, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.043634, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.052691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.030672, "worst_return": -0.056596, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-10", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 2389, "typical_volume": 7941.55, "trend": 24.187665, "fair_value": 33.500954, "relative_strength": -20.524384, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.111741, "energy": 14.532762, "activity_lines": [ 23.558667, 23.368546, 22.969356, 23.413475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.780001, "volume": 2890, "typical_volume": 7624.1, "trend": 24.075671, "fair_value": 33.378104, "relative_strength": -15.647429, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.80935, "energy": 14.255427, "activity_lines": [ 23.666001, 23.459273, 23.06107, 23.387174 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.540001, "volume": 2280, "typical_volume": 7196.05, "trend": 23.993289, "fair_value": 33.257212, "relative_strength": -15.644483, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.119055, "energy": 11.9699, "activity_lines": [ 23.636001, 23.490546, 23.136595, 23.352615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.780001, "volume": 3240, "typical_volume": 6973.4, "trend": 23.94927, "fair_value": 33.147472, "relative_strength": -12.340488, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.872673, "energy": 22.894213, "activity_lines": [ 23.992668, 23.737455, 23.330436, 23.40337 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.25, "volume": 14051, "typical_volume": 7266.75, "trend": 23.987915, "fair_value": 33.048031, "relative_strength": 0.394889, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 60.944114, "energy": 67.900726, "activity_lines": [ 25.116667, 24.421819, 23.74926, 23.616321 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }