{ "ticker": { "uuid": "986d9824-ff6c-4b13-9fe0-978e3d57aa2e", "symbol": "CBOT", "name": "CBo Territoria SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 50.11, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.315, "architecture_energy": 22.538, "architecture_maturity": 23.047, "architecture_confidence": 58.396, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.79, "rotation_up": 33.27, "upward_expansion": 58.71, "deceleration": 67.18, "rotation_down": 22.06, "downward_expansion": 13.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.903333, 3.908374, 3.877052, 3.87627 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.89, "trend_reference": 3.868115, "distance_from_trend": 0.005658, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.472044, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120377, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.720557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037333, "excess_performance": -0.015978, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005658, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120377, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029364, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037206, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026752, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037333, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.404714, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38191, "relative_activity": 0.790601, "balance": 1.404714, "dry_up": 0.870911, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015653, "annualized_volatility": 0.183154, "from_high_reference": -0.095349, "from_low_reference": 0.086592 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.868115, "fair_value_reference": 3.472044, "structural_low": 3.67554, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.002732, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.004507, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.03022, "worst_return": -0.055162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002785, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.017986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07368, "worst_return": -0.01087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042735, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042466, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.076087, "worst_return": 0.013774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057619, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.072022, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.110266, "worst_return": 0.047354, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019886, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022346, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016394, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036212, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": 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}, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.89, "volume": 38191, "typical_volume": 48306.3, "trend": 3.868115, "fair_value": 3.472044, "relative_strength": -3.720557, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.315062, "energy": 22.537527, "activity_lines": [ 3.903333, 3.908374, 3.877052, 3.87627 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }