{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "986df246-457b-4ee6-b891-900a53da9992",
    "symbol": "3088",
    "name": "ChinaAMC Global ETF Series - ChinaAMC Hang Seng Tech Index ETF",
    "exchange": "HKG",
    "country": "HK",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^HSI",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -20.236,
    "architecture_energy": 15.798,
    "architecture_maturity": 99.237,
    "architecture_confidence": 59.519,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 49.72,
        "rotation_up": 35.97,
        "upward_expansion": 22.09,
        "deceleration": 41.09,
        "rotation_down": 20.63,
        "downward_expansion": 53.76
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        6.069,
        5.960091,
        6.023738,
        6.105409
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 6.185,
    "trend_reference": 6.299,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.018098,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 5.83761,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059509,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.210648,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.08843,
    "excess_performance": -0.054849,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.018098,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.060555,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.059509,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.065808,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.082106,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.013966,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.08843,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.585532,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 46675651,
      "relative_activity": 1.958064,
      "balance": 1.585532,
      "dry_up": 1.595264,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.052857,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.227756,
      "from_high_reference": -0.275368,
      "from_low_reference": 0.148561
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.299,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.83761,
      "structural_low": 5.385,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 21,
        "median_return": 0.028263,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.428571,
        "median_excess_return": 0.003557,
        "regime_survival": 0.761905,
        "best_return": 0.188743,
        "worst_return": -0.133269,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.011769,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.004406,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.172311,
        "worst_return": -0.164725,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.048554,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019929,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.0473,
        "worst_return": -0.077401,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.077968,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.021573,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.039952,
        "worst_return": -0.115985,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.086067,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035731,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-09-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000905,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.057196,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040134,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.166397,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "fair_value": 5.829297,
        "relative_strength": -10.413814,
        "stage": 4,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 6.155,
        "volume": 26797184,
        "typical_volume": 25340841.25,
        "trend": 6.3335,
        "fair_value": 5.832415,
        "relative_strength": -9.668421,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -30.404122,
        "energy": 17.762533,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 6.185,
        "volume": 46675651,
        "typical_volume": 23837648.15,
        "trend": 6.299,
        "fair_value": 5.83761,
        "relative_strength": -8.210648,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -20.236004,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}