{ "ticker": { "uuid": "987815a4-c7c0-40fd-bdaa-c7fbda38d08c", "symbol": "UEF8", "name": "UBS BBG US Liquid Corp 1-5 UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 60.693, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.214, "architecture_energy": 77.873, "architecture_maturity": 16.393, "architecture_confidence": 92.91, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.13, "rotation_up": 13.98, "upward_expansion": 18.33, "deceleration": 37.76, "rotation_down": 72.16, "downward_expansion": 94.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.2422, 15.255527, 15.271362, 15.291316 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.239, "trend_reference": 15.314233, "distance_from_trend": -0.004913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.731513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.282809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.008459, "excess_performance": -0.125121, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.004913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000516, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034449, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011864, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112828, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052546, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008459, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.031077, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 200, "relative_activity": 0.055134, "balance": 0.031077, "dry_up": 0.256716, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001822, "annualized_volatility": 0.013706, "from_high_reference": -0.009683, "from_low_reference": 0.007804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.314233, "fair_value_reference": 14.731513, "structural_low": 15.207, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.004577, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.011911, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.016844, "worst_return": -0.025484, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006262, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011166, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.030422, "worst_return": -0.04729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.007343, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042684, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031387, "worst_return": -0.064778, "sufficient": 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"volume": 592, "typical_volume": 3441.3, "trend": 15.3233, "fair_value": 14.695231, "relative_strength": -10.187995, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.231124, "energy": 46.533302, "activity_lines": [ 15.277267, 15.278255, 15.296567, 15.311591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.25, "volume": 592, "typical_volume": 3470.9, "trend": 15.321333, "fair_value": 14.70434, "relative_strength": -10.630011, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.985295, "energy": 51.411311, "activity_lines": [ 15.2674, 15.273218, 15.290167, 15.306862 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.238, "volume": 2291, "typical_volume": 3585.45, "trend": 15.3193, "fair_value": 14.713359, "relative_strength": -10.252311, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.831244, "energy": 53.305216, "activity_lines": [ 15.2564, 15.266673, 15.28319, 15.301486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.24, "volume": 642, "typical_volume": 3617.55, "trend": 15.317333, "fair_value": 14.722372, "relative_strength": -10.638999, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.874996, "energy": 74.102429, "activity_lines": [ 15.249, 15.261382, 15.277029, 15.29637 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.239, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 3627.55, "trend": 15.314233, "fair_value": 14.731513, "relative_strength": -11.282809, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.21405, "energy": 77.872578, "activity_lines": [ 15.2422, 15.255527, 15.271362, 15.291316 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }