{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9878620d-001a-4999-9909-a17932de3605", "symbol": "XUU", "name": "iShares Core S&P U.S. Total Market Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.225, "architecture_energy": 54.335, "architecture_maturity": 86.167, "architecture_confidence": 57.444, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.95, "rotation_up": 46.96, "upward_expansion": 75.66, "deceleration": 71.47, "rotation_down": 29.24, "downward_expansion": 13.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.7, 77.571407, 76.296308, 74.422006 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 79.260002, "trend_reference": 72.302024, "distance_from_trend": 0.096235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 59.391113, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334543, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.120663, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.14673, "excess_performance": 0.026309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096235, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039854, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029265, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001207, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017122, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.702304, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152900, "relative_activity": 1.160531, "balance": 1.702304, "dry_up": 1.119924, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024619, "annualized_volatility": 0.136469, "from_high_reference": -0.011228, "from_low_reference": 0.242024 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 72.302024, "fair_value_reference": 59.391113, "structural_low": 64.330002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.015993, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002102, "regime_survival": 0.795455, "best_return": 0.066791, "worst_return": -0.05255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.029636, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.00665, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.187159, "worst_return": -0.053037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.062599, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.037335, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.19112, "worst_return": -0.14617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -0.511076, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.145879, "energy": 63.662757, "activity_lines": [ 77.631803, 77.139416, 75.032005, 73.293268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 76.559998, "volume": 118600, "typical_volume": 132260.0, "trend": 71.739008, "fair_value": 58.943913, "relative_strength": -0.747026, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.620122, "energy": 59.473177, "activity_lines": [ 77.249333, 77.137022, 75.403854, 73.62046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.919998, "volume": 146500, "typical_volume": 131830.0, "trend": 72.017031, "fair_value": 59.159982, "relative_strength": 0.242731, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.972245, "energy": 45.84395, "activity_lines": [ 77.099999, 77.156366, 75.763572, 73.954717 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.260002, "volume": 152900, "typical_volume": 131750.0, "trend": 72.302024, "fair_value": 59.391113, "relative_strength": 0.120663, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.22491, "energy": 54.334785, "activity_lines": [ 77.7, 77.571407, 76.296308, 74.422006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }