{ "ticker": { "uuid": "987a6249-f8e5-4c59-a3ba-234779dada78", "symbol": "TBUX", "name": "T ROWE PRICE EXCHANGE TRD FDS INC ULTRA SHORT TERM BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.976, "architecture_energy": 67.892, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.656, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.29, "rotation_up": 68.73, "upward_expansion": 88.27, "deceleration": 46.91, "rotation_down": 17.74, "downward_expansion": 12.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.765797, 49.723842, 49.657859, 49.585235 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 49.845, "trend_reference": 49.475273, "distance_from_trend": 0.007473, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.634524, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068843, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.600106, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.01246, "excess_performance": -0.113165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007473, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005953, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068843, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007024, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096001, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 2.6e-05, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01246, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.003708, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2028933, "relative_activity": 2.094445, "balance": 5.003708, "dry_up": 1.460386, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002504, "annualized_volatility": 0.007145, "from_high_reference": -0.002405, "from_low_reference": 0.038932 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.475273, "fair_value_reference": 46.634524, "structural_low": 49.23159, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.003865, "positive_rate": 0.976744, "directional_follow_through": 0.976744, "median_excess_return": -0.013876, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.008302, "worst_return": -0.000173, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013837, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056838, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.021135, "worst_return": 0.004644, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027644, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053997, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.037547, "worst_return": 0.020411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 931582.75, "trend": 49.369768, "fair_value": 46.446574, "relative_strength": -8.783754, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.123252, "energy": 45.618643, "activity_lines": [ 49.658376, 49.643271, 49.57263, 49.495437 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.712462, "volume": 1345799, "typical_volume": 945322.05, "trend": 49.396675, "fair_value": 46.493832, "relative_strength": -7.006602, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.96885, "energy": 44.071398, "activity_lines": [ 49.672512, 49.660884, 49.592485, 49.517546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.711466, "volume": 1041675, "typical_volume": 916681.65, "trend": 49.422326, "fair_value": 46.540684, "relative_strength": -6.240908, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.925226, "energy": 46.386551, "activity_lines": [ 49.686555, 49.674473, 49.610407, 49.537855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.76, "volume": 1242418, "typical_volume": 923887.6, "trend": 49.448284, "fair_value": 46.587401, "relative_strength": -6.881028, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.114408, "energy": 49.978913, "activity_lines": [ 49.717082, 49.693242, 49.631141, 49.559641 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.845, "volume": 2028933, "typical_volume": 968720.9, "trend": 49.475273, "fair_value": 46.634524, "relative_strength": -9.600106, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.976163, "energy": 67.891887, "activity_lines": [ 49.765797, 49.723842, 49.657859, 49.585235 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }