{ "ticker": { "uuid": "987db058-1d39-4237-b005-dcab63104d4d", "symbol": "FURY", "name": "Fury Gold Mines Limited", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.632, "architecture_energy": 14.178, "architecture_maturity": 43.796, "architecture_confidence": 76.547, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.3, "rotation_up": 28.27, "upward_expansion": 17.38, "deceleration": 38.45, "rotation_down": 32.63, "downward_expansion": 62.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.780333, 0.775091, 0.777262, 0.798849 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.83, "trend_reference": 0.845333, "distance_from_trend": -0.018139, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.658782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.259901, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.732453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.117021, "excess_performance": -0.237443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018139, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.259901, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127325, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020439, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.06067, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 404800, "relative_activity": 0.811247, "balance": 1.06067, "dry_up": 0.781537, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070436, "annualized_volatility": 0.487353, "from_high_reference": -0.394161, "from_low_reference": 0.276923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.845333, "fair_value_reference": 0.658782, "structural_low": 0.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.024321, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.022759, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.393939, "worst_return": -0.225352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.018072, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.053168, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.411348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.010347, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.392157, "worst_return": -0.411348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.328571, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.480519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178218, 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"direction": -37.530425, "energy": 21.760404, "activity_lines": [ 0.781, 0.770818, 0.785548, 0.81872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.76, "volume": 280700, "typical_volume": 629555.0, "trend": 0.851667, "fair_value": 0.653429, "relative_strength": -18.302885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.697412, "energy": 21.708498, "activity_lines": [ 0.778667, 0.768091, 0.780643, 0.812656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.75, "volume": 457100, "typical_volume": 583175.0, "trend": 0.847333, "fair_value": 0.655032, "relative_strength": -19.260187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.228792, "energy": 21.67682, "activity_lines": [ 0.771, 0.764545, 0.776214, 0.806097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.75, "volume": 417300, "typical_volume": 541775.0, "trend": 0.845, "fair_value": 0.656635, "relative_strength": -18.701741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.179126, "energy": 31.961839, "activity_lines": [ 0.762, 0.762273, 0.772738, 0.799817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.83, "volume": 404800, "typical_volume": 498985.0, "trend": 0.845333, "fair_value": 0.658782, "relative_strength": -12.732453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.632473, "energy": 14.177991, "activity_lines": [ 0.780333, 0.775091, 0.777262, 0.798849 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }