{ "ticker": { "uuid": "987fe266-c52f-43d6-8da3-152a6d4be588", "symbol": "SAWD", "name": "iShares MSCI World Screened UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.064, "architecture_energy": 59.398, "architecture_maturity": 55.596, "architecture_confidence": 75.365, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.67, "rotation_up": 53.59, "upward_expansion": 79.83, "deceleration": 66.81, "rotation_down": 26.79, "downward_expansion": 8.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.607067, 13.532491, 13.399567, 13.146841 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.994, "trend_reference": 12.8679, "distance_from_trend": 0.087512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.470565, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.336509, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.396404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123655, "excess_performance": 0.07242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03493, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.336509, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012829, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033964, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123655, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.154435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6605498, "relative_activity": 3.18558, "balance": 5.154435, "dry_up": 1.265938, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020318, "annualized_volatility": 0.141978, "from_high_reference": -0.001142, "from_low_reference": 0.233169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.8679, "fair_value_reference": 10.470565, "structural_low": 11.44, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.014975, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.005996, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.054355, "worst_return": -0.094935, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.022407, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006002, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.127068, "worst_return": -0.061675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.08105, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.035628, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.14669, "worst_return": -0.173501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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2188396.45, "trend": 12.750433, "fair_value": 10.361918, "relative_strength": 1.938441, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.533683, "energy": 53.112274, "activity_lines": [ 13.465333, 13.448873, 13.21799, 12.990602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.378, "volume": 1012244, "typical_volume": 1997093.4, "trend": 12.7829, "fair_value": 10.395899, "relative_strength": 0.439769, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.855647, "energy": 47.066328, "activity_lines": [ 13.439333, 13.439727, 13.264519, 13.03109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.402, "volume": 1498246, "typical_volume": 1933601.3, "trend": 12.818967, "fair_value": 10.430912, "relative_strength": -0.624128, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.958919, "energy": 40.40383, "activity_lines": [ 13.4288, 13.432291, 13.307381, 13.071032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.994, "volume": 6605498, "typical_volume": 2073561.85, "trend": 12.8679, "fair_value": 10.470565, "relative_strength": 3.396404, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.063942, "energy": 59.39781, "activity_lines": [ 13.607067, 13.532491, 13.399567, 13.146841 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }