{ "ticker": { "uuid": "988e513e-9068-44d2-b6fa-7df9a37d0008", "symbol": "EWZ", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI BRAZIL ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.59, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.066, "architecture_energy": 19.396, "architecture_maturity": 16.257, "architecture_confidence": 60.153, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.75, "rotation_up": 32.33, "upward_expansion": 20.0, "deceleration": 41.08, "rotation_down": 23.77, "downward_expansion": 54.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.792, 35.391355, 35.79424, 36.200499 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 35.34, "trend_reference": 36.495893, "distance_from_trend": -0.031672, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.538311, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.238335, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.381364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.050123, "excess_performance": -0.175748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031672, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033103, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.238335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16335, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050123, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822818, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98513334, "relative_activity": 0.830349, "balance": 0.822818, "dry_up": 0.771403, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046854, "annualized_volatility": 0.257993, "from_high_reference": -0.150943, "from_low_reference": 0.352321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.495893, "fair_value_reference": 28.538311, "structural_low": 33.21292, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.002591, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.015048, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.125906, "worst_return": -0.135524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030556, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.063258, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.210101, "worst_return": -0.108371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010882, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.179721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245825, "worst_return": 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"typical_volume": 118640928.35, "trend": 36.495893, "fair_value": 28.538311, "relative_strength": -6.381364, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.066181, "energy": 19.395809, "activity_lines": [ 35.792, 35.391355, 35.79424, 36.200499 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }