{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9894aa9b-af5b-432b-859c-6c7e6c6d9366", "symbol": "STWK", "name": "Stockwik F\u00f6rvaltning AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.479, "architecture_energy": 11.272, "architecture_maturity": 21.821, "architecture_confidence": 81.652, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.37, "rotation_up": 25.39, "upward_expansion": 22.43, "deceleration": 51.35, "rotation_down": 21.01, "downward_expansion": 44.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.94, 16.728182, 16.71, 17.080537 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 17.0, "trend_reference": 17.86, "distance_from_trend": -0.048152, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.01984, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056595, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.069625, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.095745, "excess_performance": -0.157239, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048152, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041931, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049366, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069573, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.095745, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.942448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4397, "relative_activity": 0.258129, "balance": 0.942448, "dry_up": 0.727996, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083032, "annualized_volatility": 0.4927, "from_high_reference": -0.276596, "from_low_reference": 0.209964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.86, "fair_value_reference": 18.01984, "structural_low": 14.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.020341, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.006528, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.444576, "worst_return": -0.225033, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.19337, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.201973, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.492083, "worst_return": -0.310253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.379567, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.377122, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.449452, "worst_return": -0.635359, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.506089, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.355848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.545763, "worst_return": -0.579228, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126892, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027415, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.229249, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046285, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061159, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.191038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094647, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.055531, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004608, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082126, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087379, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238095, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.11579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.700001, "volume": 35469, "typical_volume": 38047.8, "trend": 25.708333, "fair_value": 81.548718, "relative_strength": -32.919395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"typical_volume": 19127.6, "trend": 18.256666, "fair_value": 18.153173, "relative_strength": -20.215844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.362308, "energy": 34.210991, "activity_lines": [ 16.39, 16.418182, 16.749286, 17.399032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.0, "volume": 12813, "typical_volume": 18217.25, "trend": 18.263333, "fair_value": 18.115994, "relative_strength": -18.258792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.477501, "energy": 18.360316, "activity_lines": [ 16.69, 16.526364, 16.724762, 17.317957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 15844, "typical_volume": 18042.55, "trend": 18.186667, "fair_value": 18.082019, "relative_strength": -18.866155, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.56092, "energy": 20.312174, "activity_lines": [ 16.913333, 16.626364, 16.717381, 17.236451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 16549, "typical_volume": 18072.75, "trend": 18.03, "fair_value": 18.048686, "relative_strength": -20.175339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.167459, "energy": 16.680577, "activity_lines": [ 16.936666, 16.666363, 16.7, 17.146989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.0, "volume": 4397, "typical_volume": 17034.1, "trend": 17.86, "fair_value": 18.01984, "relative_strength": -20.069625, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.479376, "energy": 11.272458, "activity_lines": [ 16.94, 16.728182, 16.71, 17.080537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }