{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98953b2c-eb4a-42f3-a4b4-62af6c7b9229", "symbol": "RS2K", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Russell 2000 ETF-C EUR", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.184, "architecture_energy": 50.498, "architecture_maturity": 65.104, "architecture_confidence": 86.058, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.96, "rotation_up": 41.7, "upward_expansion": 68.59, "deceleration": 88.27, "rotation_down": 27.77, "downward_expansion": 20.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 388.514663, 389.613449, 381.407329, 370.407505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 393.970001, "trend_reference": 357.733775, "distance_from_trend": 0.101294, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 300.424393, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.311378, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.686594, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.172141, "excess_performance": 0.11883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101294, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068705, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.311378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056174, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.086866, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058534, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.172141, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.264251, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10554, "relative_activity": 1.047071, "balance": 1.264251, "dry_up": 0.910433, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025514, "annualized_volatility": 0.128911, "from_high_reference": -0.013447, "from_low_reference": 0.384194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 357.733775, "fair_value_reference": 300.424393, "structural_low": 312.55249, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.013939, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031617, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.083368, "worst_return": -0.096397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.030652, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.018628, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146011, "worst_return": -0.238949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005531, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.164727, "worst_return": -0.172376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 12.646379, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.892016, "energy": 63.330295, "activity_lines": [ 390.87533, 389.128465, 377.13683, 366.206489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 380.799988, "volume": 9403, "typical_volume": 11105.8, "trend": 355.866884, "fair_value": 299.538689, "relative_strength": 8.016483, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.42526, "energy": 49.037455, "activity_lines": [ 386.968661, 388.267601, 378.780531, 367.949239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 393.970001, "volume": 10554, "typical_volume": 10079.55, "trend": 357.733775, "fair_value": 300.424393, "relative_strength": 8.686594, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.184182, "energy": 50.498008, "activity_lines": [ 388.514663, 389.613449, 381.407329, 370.407505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }