{ "ticker": { "uuid": "989b5572-cdf2-49dd-9883-8ce6f8bff56e", "symbol": "600551", "name": "Time Publishing and Media Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.67, "architecture_energy": 38.314, "architecture_maturity": 95.361, "architecture_confidence": 61.571, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.27, "rotation_up": 26.2, "upward_expansion": 17.3, "deceleration": 66.84, "rotation_down": 41.47, "downward_expansion": 67.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.831333, 6.822398, 7.076825, 7.355903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.86, "trend_reference": 7.732939, "distance_from_trend": -0.112886, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.844264, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.125476, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.296899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.213303, "excess_performance": -0.170099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112886, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068047, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.125476, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107785, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016921, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213303, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.54057, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22807467, "relative_activity": 1.103945, "balance": 0.54057, "dry_up": 1.092431, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062374, "annualized_volatility": 0.220056, "from_high_reference": -0.291685, "from_low_reference": 0.060278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.732939, "fair_value_reference": 7.844264, "structural_low": 6.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.034134, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": 0.016552, "regime_survival": 0.631579, "best_return": 0.191756, "worst_return": -0.103238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.105795, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.084404, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.284915, "worst_return": -0.135272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.114312, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.049541, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.448196, "worst_return": -0.172914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.69, "volume": 21220456, "typical_volume": 20983632.9, "trend": 7.817606, "fair_value": 7.856258, "relative_strength": -15.879103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.146454, "energy": 58.399001, "activity_lines": [ 6.71, 6.811984, 7.175855, 7.46768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.0, "volume": 24185570, "typical_volume": 20909139.2, "trend": 7.774939, "fair_value": 7.850151, "relative_strength": -11.833106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.278038, "energy": 50.186445, "activity_lines": [ 6.799333, 6.826868, 7.129578, 7.414932 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.86, "volume": 22807467, "typical_volume": 20659968.45, "trend": 7.732939, "fair_value": 7.844264, "relative_strength": -15.296899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.67036, "energy": 38.313904, "activity_lines": [ 6.831333, 6.822398, 7.076825, 7.355903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }