{ "ticker": { "uuid": "989bea94-18fc-43f1-816d-a50fbae6b205", "symbol": "UMAEXPORTS", "name": "Uma Exports Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.887, "architecture_energy": 72.033, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.554, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.81, "rotation_up": 14.31, "upward_expansion": 15.17, "deceleration": 40.42, "rotation_down": 74.68, "downward_expansion": 93.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.302, 21.02, 22.549762, 23.40671 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 20.07, "trend_reference": 25.286667, "distance_from_trend": -0.206301, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 65.267884, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.692498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.645864, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.412299, "excess_performance": -0.36859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.206301, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195563, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.692498, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.396459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029994, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.412299, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.413741, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72645, "relative_activity": 0.326217, "balance": 0.413741, "dry_up": 0.647369, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092369, "annualized_volatility": 0.626628, "from_high_reference": -0.652828, "from_low_reference": 0.107616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.286667, "fair_value_reference": 65.267884, "structural_low": 18.120001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.07167, "positive_rate": 0.157895, "directional_follow_through": 0.842105, "median_excess_return": -0.100333, "regime_survival": 0.947368, "best_return": 0.367368, "worst_return": -0.287646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.224606, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.237932, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.081505, "worst_return": -0.321933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.404224, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.508278, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.907001, "worst_return": -0.486775, "sufficient": false }, { 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77.493291, "activity_lines": [ 20.988667, 21.922364, 23.2, 24.187678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.129999, "volume": 52664, "typical_volume": 261711.85, "trend": 25.827667, "fair_value": 65.455256, "relative_strength": -39.773456, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.061464, "energy": 76.531757, "activity_lines": [ 20.592667, 21.434727, 22.867857, 23.778172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.07, "volume": 72645, "typical_volume": 222688.9, "trend": 25.286667, "fair_value": 65.267884, "relative_strength": -39.645864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.88678, "energy": 72.03271, "activity_lines": [ 20.302, 21.02, 22.549762, 23.40671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }