{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "989ed2e7-0f49-46b9-88cc-bd68d3f9acca",
    "symbol": "ZWS",
    "name": "Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation",
    "exchange": "NYSE",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 56.44,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 55.516,
    "architecture_energy": 35.999,
    "architecture_maturity": 24.845,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.136,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 47.54,
        "rotation_up": 47.19,
        "upward_expansion": 74.21,
        "deceleration": 56.87,
        "rotation_down": 21.69,
        "downward_expansion": 10.21
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        49.806,
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        49.087579,
        48.751825
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 51.42,
    "trend_reference": 48.483843,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.06056,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 37.558915,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.369049,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.619627,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.021414,
    "excess_performance": -0.147039,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06056,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016369,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.369049,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.064298,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.036196,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.053968,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.021414,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.76783,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4233271,
      "relative_activity": 0.836393,
      "balance": 2.76783,
      "dry_up": 1.052917,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.059068,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.260234,
      "from_high_reference": -0.065074,
      "from_low_reference": 0.196895
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 48.483843,
      "fair_value_reference": 37.558915,
      "structural_low": 42.961177,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.027461,
        "positive_rate": 0.615385,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": -0.0045,
        "regime_survival": 0.384615,
        "best_return": 0.142666,
        "worst_return": -0.139054,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.054283,
        "positive_rate": 0.571429,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.571429,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008516,
        "regime_survival": 0.428571,
        "best_return": 0.223645,
        "worst_return": -0.221623,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.195194,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.088727,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
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        "worst_return": -0.263702,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": -0.303274,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-02-28",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "return": 0.233526,
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "trend": 47.710816,
        "fair_value": 36.260352,
        "relative_strength": -5.811641,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 16.672109,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 1.399302,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 32.102511,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 4868984.85,
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        "fair_value": 36.883804,
        "relative_strength": -4.242335,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
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        "energy": 29.634592,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 4945105.8,
        "trend": 48.127603,
        "fair_value": 37.018175,
        "relative_strength": -9.061013,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.304095,
        "energy": 18.048319,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 47.73,
        "volume": 4699125,
        "typical_volume": 4999239.35,
        "trend": 48.142313,
        "fair_value": 37.153923,
        "relative_strength": -7.003498,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 22.138692,
        "energy": 8.49931,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.483333,
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          48.512289,
          48.383829
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 48.38,
        "volume": 5245557,
        "typical_volume": 5057861.3,
        "trend": 48.167407,
        "fair_value": 37.274469,
        "relative_strength": -5.311695,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.111511,
        "energy": 11.161949,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.270667,
          48.528727,
          48.551168,
          48.399164
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 50.51,
        "volume": 7138728,
        "typical_volume": 5213403.15,
        "trend": 48.296355,
        "fair_value": 37.412218,
        "relative_strength": -2.081711,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 40.418225,
        "energy": 16.736533,
        "activity_lines": [
          48.874667,
          48.908182,
          48.787671,
          48.550299
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 51.42,
        "volume": 4233271,
        "typical_volume": 5061339.55,
        "trend": 48.483843,
        "fair_value": 37.558915,
        "relative_strength": -3.619627,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.516446,
        "energy": 35.999246,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}