{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98adf897-ad72-4a86-815b-19e28556e532", "symbol": "MYG", "name": "Mayfield Group Holdings Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.851, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -42.666, "architecture_energy": 61.171, "architecture_maturity": 17.933, "architecture_confidence": 70.341, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.17, "rotation_up": 16.21, "upward_expansion": 20.26, "deceleration": 44.0, "rotation_down": 73.11, "downward_expansion": 61.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.193333, 2.447636, 2.60681, 2.578831 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.08, "trend_reference": 2.597282, "distance_from_trend": -0.199163, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.26288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.647029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.817123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.222988, "excess_performance": -0.286694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.199163, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005081, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.647029, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.896108, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.158171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.562436, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222988, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.735926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3341957, "relative_activity": 1.826751, "balance": 2.735926, "dry_up": 1.402153, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184726, "annualized_volatility": 0.650769, "from_high_reference": -0.404842, "from_low_reference": 0.900481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.597282, "fair_value_reference": 1.26288, "structural_low": 1.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a 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"2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.990005, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.252034, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.245, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": 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2.734555, 2.700896 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.81, "volume": 382712, "typical_volume": 1675509.4, "trend": 2.702433, "fair_value": 1.201459, "relative_strength": 24.880584, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.324424, "energy": 34.817588, "activity_lines": [ 2.981333, 2.967091, 2.754935, 2.708378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.48, "volume": 1280372, "typical_volume": 1652116.25, "trend": 2.701157, "fair_value": 1.215175, "relative_strength": 9.300303, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.881304, "energy": 8.864328, "activity_lines": [ 2.81, 2.887818, 2.742498, 2.694028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.53, "volume": 3186099, "typical_volume": 1760844.3, "trend": 2.695598, "fair_value": 1.229073, "relative_strength": 10.201599, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.209981, "energy": 15.176059, "activity_lines": [ 2.691333, 2.819273, 2.735619, 2.682985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.28, "volume": 1397991, "typical_volume": 1722938.0, "trend": 2.673444, "fair_value": 1.241426, "relative_strength": -1.39891, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.489482, "energy": 28.831546, "activity_lines": [ 2.508667, 2.708545, 2.706905, 2.656173 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.03, "volume": 2334648, "typical_volume": 1763850.65, "trend": 2.635356, "fair_value": 1.252092, "relative_strength": -14.708435, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.685688, "energy": 48.922038, "activity_lines": [ 2.308667, 2.565636, 2.654571, 2.61466 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.08, "volume": 3341957, "typical_volume": 1829453.55, "trend": 2.597282, "fair_value": 1.26288, "relative_strength": -15.817123, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.665558, "energy": 61.171203, "activity_lines": [ 2.193333, 2.447636, 2.60681, 2.578831 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }