{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98af8e23-6bc6-4ed0-bfc3-11ae211615c0", "symbol": "NEXT", "name": "Nextdecade Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.917, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.175, "architecture_energy": 29.245, "architecture_maturity": 35.952, "architecture_confidence": 63.56, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.71, "rotation_up": 17.97, "upward_expansion": 24.3, "deceleration": 55.03, "rotation_down": 57.37, "downward_expansion": 37.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.983, 7.278909, 7.580238, 7.416688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.7, "trend_reference": 6.9875, "distance_from_trend": -0.041145, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.727853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.00414, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.258331, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.278626, "excess_performance": 0.091172, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041145, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.00414, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.278626, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.656535, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12018142, "relative_activity": 0.703338, "balance": 0.656535, "dry_up": 0.833092, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142274, "annualized_volatility": 0.600078, "from_high_reference": -0.405501, "from_low_reference": 0.410526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.9875, "fair_value_reference": 6.727853, "structural_low": 4.97, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.031617, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.016111, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.599548, "worst_return": -0.343284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.086051, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.096937, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.361991, "worst_return": -0.430037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.109869, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067425, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.304136, "worst_return": -0.497201, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136264, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048662, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.179104, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12035, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002799, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133041, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.025338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074561, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101877, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.01, "volume": 8126934, "typical_volume": 8075373.65, "trend": 6.198667, "fair_value": 4.395128, "relative_strength": -15.490161, "stage": 3, 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"activity_lines": [ 7.691333, 7.846545, 7.824714, 7.43043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.005, "volume": 13179718, "typical_volume": 18830735.2, "trend": 6.8825, "fair_value": 6.713622, "relative_strength": -9.425823, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.900694, "energy": 7.690503, "activity_lines": [ 7.489, 7.656909, 7.767857, 7.441828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.72, "volume": 21242640, "typical_volume": 19131786.2, "trend": 6.927167, "fair_value": 6.720929, "relative_strength": -12.037273, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.770993, "energy": 11.066394, "activity_lines": [ 7.214667, 7.453909, 7.677262, 7.431344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.7, "volume": 12018142, "typical_volume": 17087281.65, "trend": 6.9875, "fair_value": 6.727853, "relative_strength": -15.258331, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.174582, "energy": 29.245261, "activity_lines": [ 6.983, 7.278909, 7.580238, 7.416688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }