{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98b77877-b696-4e6b-b510-12b3128a87fc", "symbol": "LINCOLN", "name": "Lincoln Pharmaceuticals Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.237, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.299, "architecture_energy": 32.87, "architecture_maturity": 2.168, "architecture_confidence": 47.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.01, "rotation_up": 16.26, "upward_expansion": 20.57, "deceleration": 52.97, "rotation_down": 54.46, "downward_expansion": 45.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 590.590014, 601.395463, 617.379292, 614.907531 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 600.150024, "trend_reference": 598.891669, "distance_from_trend": 0.002101, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 601.46974, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002194, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.30904, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.305241, "excess_performance": 0.348951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002101, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064895, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002194, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06309, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202061, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.305241, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.457222, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 169344, "relative_activity": 0.402515, "balance": 0.457222, "dry_up": 0.284792, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081351, "annualized_volatility": 0.606663, "from_high_reference": -0.220584, "from_low_reference": 0.363977 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 598.891669, "fair_value_reference": 601.46974, "structural_low": 460.200012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.107377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.106755, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222398, "worst_return": -0.007645, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.047206, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.059453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.080227, "worst_return": -0.17464, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.00034, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140695, "worst_return": -0.141375, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.208955, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.114699, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05739, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 590.590014, 601.395463, 617.379292, 614.907531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }