{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98ba6a07-7599-465a-b3fb-c8a92c407dbb", "symbol": "SGL", "name": "SGL Carbon SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.514, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.511, "architecture_energy": 31.403, "architecture_maturity": 5.488, "architecture_confidence": 46.523, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.13, "rotation_up": 15.46, "upward_expansion": 18.96, "deceleration": 55.84, "rotation_down": 59.39, "downward_expansion": 46.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.008333, 4.159455, 4.350452, 4.278065 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.28, "trend_reference": 4.201833, "distance_from_trend": 0.018603, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.791955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.106836, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.020689, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.053097, "excess_performance": -0.117737, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.018603, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124186, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.106836, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016754, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060207, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196054, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053097, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.16575, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1368177, "relative_activity": 1.474176, "balance": 1.16575, "dry_up": 1.036781, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.123382, "annualized_volatility": 0.626734, "from_high_reference": -0.24515, "from_low_reference": 0.675147 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.201833, "fair_value_reference": 4.791955, "structural_low": 3.08, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.065157, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.073341, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.183133, "worst_return": -0.080581, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.159016, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.153871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.282731, "worst_return": -0.225892, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.120211, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.034661, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.373494, "worst_return": -0.386066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.224227, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146835, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.069424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130031, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1133, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 4.01, "volume": 635703, "typical_volume": 1112517.2, "trend": 4.120667, "fair_value": 4.860801, "relative_strength": 5.563115, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.938962, "energy": 23.749787, "activity_lines": [ 4.172, 4.460818, 4.426881, 4.309957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.91, "volume": 844874, "typical_volume": 1044107.8, "trend": 4.146833, "fair_value": 4.837179, "relative_strength": 1.790432, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.020678, "energy": 30.180541, "activity_lines": [ 4.034, 4.334909, 4.394929, 4.296366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.75, "volume": 1000175, "typical_volume": 1042221.95, "trend": 4.166833, "fair_value": 4.813494, "relative_strength": -4.39344, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.795005, "energy": 40.33527, "activity_lines": [ 3.918667, 4.192, 4.347881, 4.270763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.28, "volume": 1368177, "typical_volume": 928095.8, "trend": 4.201833, "fair_value": 4.791955, "relative_strength": 6.020689, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.511426, "energy": 31.402552, "activity_lines": [ 4.008333, 4.159455, 4.350452, 4.278065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }