{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98ba94f3-4662-4cf1-9879-ce06dc0dbf3d", "symbol": "002648", "name": "Satellite Chemical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 9.728, "architecture_energy": 10.867, "architecture_maturity": 17.094, "architecture_confidence": 60.064, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.56, "rotation_up": 44.7, "upward_expansion": 31.57, "deceleration": 42.99, "rotation_down": 22.4, "downward_expansion": 22.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.743334, 24.208387, 24.530104, 24.857362 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.780001, "trend_reference": 24.599739, "distance_from_trend": 0.047979, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.544195, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.390193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.314363, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.058292, "excess_performance": 0.050893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047979, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098937, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.390193, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085748, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.143144, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087879, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058292, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.42485, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 224172265, "relative_activity": 0.948889, "balance": 1.42485, "dry_up": 1.128548, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097788, "annualized_volatility": 0.518559, "from_high_reference": -0.140667, "from_low_reference": 0.591358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.599739, "fair_value_reference": 18.544195, "structural_low": 21.459999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.030228, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.016732, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.113787, "worst_return": -0.109941, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.047443, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.00218, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.121023, "worst_return": -0.105433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035657, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.059096, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26743, "worst_return": -0.147874, "sufficient": true }, { 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010406, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02058, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088608, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023582, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", 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"relative_strength": 11.421422, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.064618, "energy": 13.248905, "activity_lines": [ 23.524, 23.46259, 24.479267, 24.678189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.389999, "volume": 222025669, "typical_volume": 244147521.75, "trend": 24.329739, "fair_value": 18.475241, "relative_strength": 18.731238, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.832263, "energy": 5.115149, "activity_lines": [ 24.086, 23.81125, 24.479304, 24.763797 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.780001, "volume": 224172265, "typical_volume": 236246979.5, "trend": 24.599739, "fair_value": 18.544195, "relative_strength": 14.314363, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.728328, "energy": 10.866796, "activity_lines": [ 24.743334, 24.208387, 24.530104, 24.857362 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }