{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98be6786-a180-4de2-af82-a45163d511f5", "symbol": "ON", "name": "ON Semiconductor Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.284, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.317, "architecture_energy": 29.625, "architecture_maturity": 38.767, "architecture_confidence": 47.954, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.91, "rotation_up": 14.5, "upward_expansion": 20.87, "deceleration": 61.84, "rotation_down": 63.08, "downward_expansion": 39.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 84.228, 90.225818, 97.034286, 92.020946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 81.17, "trend_reference": 84.236667, "distance_from_trend": -0.036405, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 68.13359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.191336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.053495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.244939, "excess_performance": 0.057485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036405, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210859, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.191336, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.338826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.030535, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.462336, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.244939, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.817659, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76174580, "relative_activity": 1.347706, "balance": 0.817659, "dry_up": 0.92756, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.197091, "annualized_volatility": 0.68296, "from_high_reference": -0.398384, "from_low_reference": 0.821589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.236667, "fair_value_reference": 68.13359, "structural_low": 54.99, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.068634, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.019785, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.400776, "worst_return": -0.188528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.062716, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.039836, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 1.052312, "worst_return": -0.253722, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.28145, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.190501, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.50564, "worst_return": -0.208714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 16.801021, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.342225, "energy": 24.750218, "activity_lines": [ 93.151333, 101.667818, 99.691762, 91.923892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 86.81, "volume": 36079802, "typical_volume": 53859583.05, "trend": 82.772667, "fair_value": 68.352179, "relative_strength": 17.389403, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.675106, "energy": 20.024479, "activity_lines": [ 89.633333, 97.982364, 99.281714, 92.252925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.61, "volume": 49438234, "typical_volume": 54537329.25, "trend": 83.603, "fair_value": 68.219487, "relative_strength": 9.449618, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.303372, "energy": 21.144275, "activity_lines": [ 86.702667, 93.829636, 98.233857, 92.177914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.17, "volume": 76174580, "typical_volume": 56521674.55, "trend": 84.236667, "fair_value": 68.13359, "relative_strength": 3.053495, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.316517, "energy": 29.624961, "activity_lines": [ 84.228, 90.225818, 97.034286, 92.020946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }