{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98bfa224-fb03-4f79-883d-220f6943173a", "symbol": "PDA0", "name": "PRO DV AG", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.793, "architecture_energy": 87.889, "architecture_maturity": 22.188, "architecture_confidence": 82.002, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.82, "rotation_up": 8.45, "upward_expansion": 21.83, "deceleration": 37.05, "rotation_down": 83.34, "downward_expansion": 99.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.021333, 2.062545, 2.117714, 2.144 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 2.02, "trend_reference": 2.189333, "distance_from_trend": -0.077345, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.531987, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.202208, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.042527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106195, "excess_performance": -0.170834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077345, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061714, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.202208, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210425, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090344, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106195, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 814, "relative_activity": 0.886083, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.673815, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025514, "annualized_volatility": 0.138927, "from_high_reference": -0.303448, "from_low_reference": 0.015075 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.189333, "fair_value_reference": 2.531987, "structural_low": 1.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.022365, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.018067, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.226537, "worst_return": -0.173797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.02194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028454, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.221154, "worst_return": -0.098214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.107329, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.007145, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.326923, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.173077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082759, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049296, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 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2.552981, "relative_strength": -16.439748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.440142, "energy": 51.149057, "activity_lines": [ 2.168, 2.184, 2.189143, 2.208946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.04, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 1104.25, "trend": 2.240667, "fair_value": 2.548942, "relative_strength": -18.306126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.821465, "energy": 69.784626, "activity_lines": [ 2.126667, 2.154909, 2.174571, 2.195183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.02, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 1090.65, "trend": 2.225333, "fair_value": 2.545256, "relative_strength": -17.852084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.900864, "energy": 90.342707, "activity_lines": [ 2.085333, 2.125818, 2.159143, 2.180946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.02, "volume": 52, "typical_volume": 1078.2, "trend": 2.208, "fair_value": 2.541474, "relative_strength": -18.250143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.014724, "energy": 91.079801, "activity_lines": [ 2.052, 2.100727, 2.144476, 2.167699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.02, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 1028.7, "trend": 2.199333, "fair_value": 2.536923, "relative_strength": -19.408104, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.868536, "energy": 90.350393, "activity_lines": [ 2.032, 2.079636, 2.130667, 2.15557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.02, "volume": 814, "typical_volume": 918.65, "trend": 2.189333, "fair_value": 2.531987, "relative_strength": -21.042527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.793462, "energy": 87.889445, "activity_lines": [ 2.021333, 2.062545, 2.117714, 2.144 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }