{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98c36d37-8c05-4b02-9aec-78209852df15", "symbol": "43E", "name": "VCPlus Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.392, "architecture_energy": 44.193, "architecture_maturity": 27.241, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.8, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 10.91, "deceleration": 38.15, "rotation_down": 56.99, "downward_expansion": 81.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.0022, 0.002395, 0.00251 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.002, "trend_reference": 0.002633, "distance_from_trend": -0.240506, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.002712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.262411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.861057, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.333333, "excess_performance": -0.488168, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240506, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.262411, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.388611, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.352173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.333333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.022538, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2608000, "relative_activity": 0.602224, "balance": 0.022538, "dry_up": 1.901058, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.461538, "annualized_volatility": 1.898472, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 1.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.002633, "fair_value_reference": 0.002712, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.002399, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.097768, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.333333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.404103, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.166667, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.571429, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.583769, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-11-19", "end": "2022-04-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.190476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-04-22", "end": "2022-06-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-06-17", "end": "2022-12-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-12-16", "end": "2023-03-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-24", "end": "2023-09-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-06", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.666667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"close": 0.003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1475365.0, "trend": 0.002767, "fair_value": 0.002814, "relative_strength": -5.275511, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.732014, "energy": 7.899454, "activity_lines": [ 0.002733, 0.002691, 0.00271, 0.002744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.002, "volume": 39118300, "typical_volume": 3431280.0, "trend": 0.002767, "fair_value": 0.002788, "relative_strength": -38.729835, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.978939, "energy": 33.544873, "activity_lines": [ 0.002467, 0.002564, 0.002638, 0.002695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.002, "volume": 5089600, "typical_volume": 3664755.0, "trend": 0.002733, "fair_value": 0.002769, "relative_strength": -38.951257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.954289, "energy": 44.819937, "activity_lines": [ 0.002267, 0.002455, 0.002571, 0.002645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.002, "volume": 7229500, "typical_volume": 3867850.0, "trend": 0.0027, "fair_value": 0.00275, "relative_strength": -39.131863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.078827, "energy": 43.821617, "activity_lines": [ 0.002133, 0.002364, 0.00251, 0.002598 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.002, "volume": 18003900, "typical_volume": 4385220.0, "trend": 0.002667, "fair_value": 0.002731, "relative_strength": -38.83216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.116912, "energy": 51.371099, "activity_lines": [ 0.002067, 0.002273, 0.002452, 0.002553 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.002, "volume": 2608000, "typical_volume": 4330615.0, "trend": 0.002633, "fair_value": 0.002712, "relative_strength": -38.861057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.392359, "energy": 44.192528, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.0022, 0.002395, 0.00251 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }