{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98d081c8-70a4-4a76-bba2-bd0772e8f884", "symbol": "EMXC", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Ex China UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.33, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.212, "architecture_energy": 26.323, "architecture_maturity": 66.274, "architecture_confidence": 86.221, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.11, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 55.03, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 39.95, "downward_expansion": 21.03 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.130667, 40.151546, 39.945786, 38.661893 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 39.345001, "trend_reference": 36.911667, "distance_from_trend": 0.065923, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.016218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.456347, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.519123, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.192815, "excess_performance": 0.021923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065923, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115246, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.456347, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025191, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16839, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.192815, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.019086, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 194742, "relative_activity": 2.267081, "balance": 1.019086, "dry_up": 1.524999, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055896, "annualized_volatility": 0.276454, "from_high_reference": -0.107013, "from_low_reference": 0.549626 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.911667, "fair_value_reference": 27.016218, "structural_low": 31.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.00166, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.015881, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.137686, "worst_return": -0.022182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050739, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.312191, "worst_return": 0.011854, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.079627, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.043112, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116169, "worst_return": 0.035205, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2023-12-08", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.106078, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045584, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060108, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037171, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028468, "active": false }, { 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102462.9, "trend": 35.718, "fair_value": 26.56593, "relative_strength": 11.725561, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.413448, "energy": 64.571883, "activity_lines": [ 42.222334, 41.672364, 39.602405, 37.961194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.615002, "volume": 110966, "typical_volume": 101009.4, "trend": 36.038667, "fair_value": 26.676635, "relative_strength": 5.12227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.124345, "energy": 42.365119, "activity_lines": [ 40.995335, 41.223637, 39.692334, 38.148097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.200001, "volume": 52036, "typical_volume": 77034.3, "trend": 36.373, "fair_value": 26.787692, "relative_strength": 6.512476, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.542971, "energy": 26.478213, "activity_lines": [ 40.144001, 40.901001, 39.823453, 38.352054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.474998, "volume": 166245, "typical_volume": 82554.45, "trend": 36.6445, "fair_value": 26.898077, "relative_strength": 3.526506, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.840633, "energy": 26.486818, "activity_lines": [ 39.362667, 40.436364, 39.856667, 38.487667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.345001, "volume": 194742, "typical_volume": 85899.9, "trend": 36.911667, "fair_value": 27.016218, "relative_strength": 2.519123, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.211669, "energy": 26.322976, "activity_lines": [ 39.130667, 40.151546, 39.945786, 38.661893 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }