{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98e39a71-0e6f-4c5c-b582-1901b2af211e", "symbol": "GGRW", "name": "GABELLI ETFS TR GABELLI GROWTH INNOVATORS ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.629, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.254, "architecture_energy": 34.435, "architecture_maturity": 52.715, "architecture_confidence": 83.21, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.04, "rotation_up": 39.39, "upward_expansion": 66.06, "deceleration": 91.22, "rotation_down": 27.9, "downward_expansion": 13.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.15152, 37.130185, 36.905125, 36.286392 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.4762, "trend_reference": 35.621243, "distance_from_trend": 0.080148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.503085, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.304142, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.019849, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122436, "excess_performance": -0.003189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.304142, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007514, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122436, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.490246, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2397, "relative_activity": 0.679364, "balance": 2.490246, "dry_up": 0.514058, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030234, "annualized_volatility": 0.183573, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.223607 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.621243, "fair_value_reference": 29.503085, "structural_low": 31.4449, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003006, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.00216, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.085101, "worst_return": -0.057706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.078021, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.01885, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.144627, "worst_return": -0.026333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.188472, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.034738, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304141, "worst_return": 0.058994, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058612, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.069164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057783, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016891, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.043331, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.192647, "energy": 62.209292, "activity_lines": [ 37.433567, 37.232647, 36.481934, 35.916185 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.8421, "volume": 2527, "typical_volume": 3368.95, "trend": 35.481293, "fair_value": 29.158551, "relative_strength": -3.987878, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.541003, "energy": 43.657188, "activity_lines": [ 37.281573, 37.186715, 36.597546, 36.007614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.1219, "volume": 705, "typical_volume": 3385.1, "trend": 35.496567, "fair_value": 29.26576, "relative_strength": -5.109028, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.020116, "energy": 31.75963, "activity_lines": [ 36.879973, 37.007062, 36.633795, 36.048944 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.23, "volume": 1626, "typical_volume": 3437.8, "trend": 35.529183, "fair_value": 29.376681, "relative_strength": -5.634323, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.906816, "energy": 19.71102, "activity_lines": [ 36.62808, 36.857407, 36.669649, 36.096262 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.4762, "volume": 2397, "typical_volume": 3528.3, "trend": 35.621243, "fair_value": 29.503085, "relative_strength": -3.019849, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.254289, "energy": 34.434928, "activity_lines": [ 37.15152, 37.130185, 36.905125, 36.286392 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }