{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98f3fe65-9081-47c1-a569-13daae614856", "symbol": "601328", "name": "Bank of Communications Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.79, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 19.867, "architecture_energy": 33.441, "architecture_maturity": 10.179, "architecture_confidence": 84.949, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.96, "rotation_up": 63.97, "upward_expansion": 41.37, "deceleration": 38.37, "rotation_down": 16.83, "downward_expansion": 18.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.977333, 6.813375, 6.764131, 6.767956 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.91, "trend_reference": 6.77204, "distance_from_trend": 0.020372, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.527996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058518, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.346346, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.043807, "excess_performance": 0.08701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.020372, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025129, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058518, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006842, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003463, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151813, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.043807, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.223233, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 887416193, "relative_activity": 1.263141, "balance": 2.223233, "dry_up": 1.632765, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038532, "annualized_volatility": 0.184111, "from_high_reference": -0.097196, "from_low_reference": 0.10073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.77204, "fair_value_reference": 6.527996, "structural_low": 6.27765, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.001711, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01863, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.021978, "worst_return": -0.025806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000177, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057143, "worst_return": -0.056789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.037421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.095674, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116484, "worst_return": -0.041642, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 6.588735, 6.608349, 6.683339, 6.718312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.04, "volume": 1224694079, "typical_volume": 661017682.4, "trend": 6.784706, "fair_value": 6.500831, "relative_strength": 4.945499, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.029008, "energy": 9.915498, "activity_lines": [ 6.759177, 6.683236, 6.711333, 6.734284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.18, "volume": 1419214798, "typical_volume": 695060977.3, "trend": 6.783373, "fair_value": 6.515194, "relative_strength": 6.801807, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.550408, "energy": 38.830735, "activity_lines": [ 6.941059, 6.77776, 6.751375, 6.759786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.91, "volume": 887416193, "typical_volume": 702547306.65, "trend": 6.77204, "fair_value": 6.527996, "relative_strength": 0.346346, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.866933, "energy": 33.44128, "activity_lines": [ 6.977333, 6.813375, 6.764131, 6.767956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }