{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98f5ff9a-4535-4339-8446-184a0800ded3", "symbol": "PPC", "name": "Peet Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.909, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.295, "architecture_energy": 10.138, "architecture_maturity": 15.702, "architecture_confidence": 61.519, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.29, "rotation_up": 35.19, "upward_expansion": 34.3, "deceleration": 40.32, "rotation_down": 23.65, "downward_expansion": 44.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.786, 1.765, 1.742524, 1.77295 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 1.823721, "distance_from_trend": -0.00204, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.418534, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283015, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.918343, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.02185, "excess_performance": -0.041856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00204, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025165, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075391, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049183, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021499, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.02185, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.217136, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1472695, "relative_activity": 0.752653, "balance": 1.217136, "dry_up": 2.016752, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072485, "annualized_volatility": 0.383717, "from_high_reference": -0.160623, "from_low_reference": 0.19579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.823721, "fair_value_reference": 1.418534, "structural_low": 1.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.024246, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009816, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.139785, "worst_return": -0.168449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.039061, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.028452, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.131035, "worst_return": -0.060242, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054622, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.043477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.264786, "worst_return": -0.042839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.253636, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.169248, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.435084, "worst_return": -0.073323, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-04", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.008298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042016, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05814, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.050756, "volume": 131866, "typical_volume": 1360180.05, "trend": 1.000035, "fair_value": 0.908174, "relative_strength": 8.204123, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.270477, "energy": 20.418376, "activity_lines": [ 1.741, 1.710364, 1.738688, 1.78574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.815, "volume": 2769856, "typical_volume": 1755016.5, "trend": 1.836273, "fair_value": 1.404583, "relative_strength": 0.406009, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.567984, "energy": 16.830887, "activity_lines": [ 1.770333, 1.733545, 1.740926, 1.784066 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.72, "volume": 8523884, "typical_volume": 2041144.95, "trend": 1.830043, "fair_value": 1.408984, "relative_strength": -4.800822, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.308861, "energy": 12.735879, "activity_lines": [ 1.758, 1.736364, 1.735429, 1.776564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.78, "volume": 3018061, "typical_volume": 2121961.9, "trend": 1.825973, "fair_value": 1.413493, "relative_strength": -3.858826, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.140386, "energy": 12.320834, "activity_lines": [ 1.765, 1.749091, 1.736905, 1.773335 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 1472695, "typical_volume": 1956673.0, "trend": 1.823721, "fair_value": 1.418534, "relative_strength": -4.918343, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.295269, "energy": 10.138422, "activity_lines": [ 1.786, 1.765, 1.742524, 1.77295 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }