{ "ticker": { "uuid": "98fa1532-1b45-4a15-b760-a5e76e9c224f", "symbol": "RBOT", "name": "Global X Robotics & AI Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.235, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.689, "architecture_energy": 53.855, "architecture_maturity": 6.151, "architecture_confidence": 78.414, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.26, "rotation_up": 10.17, "upward_expansion": 19.9, "deceleration": 42.06, "rotation_down": 64.39, "downward_expansion": 76.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.842668, 33.251819, 34.138191, 34.116001 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.310001, "trend_reference": 34.245167, "distance_from_trend": 0.001893, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.382013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.73492, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004353, "excess_performance": -0.124774, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001893, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097349, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125613, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004353, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.210829, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10900, "relative_activity": 0.983311, "balance": 0.210829, "dry_up": 1.533604, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049683, "annualized_volatility": 0.308536, "from_high_reference": -0.100655, "from_low_reference": 0.15289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.245167, "fair_value_reference": 30.382013, "structural_low": 29.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.014673, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010666, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.145224, "worst_return": -0.140252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.081633, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.03014, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.226235, "worst_return": -0.151956, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.134093, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.018847, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.314906, "worst_return": -0.221184, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 34.150002, "volume": 22300, "typical_volume": 10305.0, "trend": 34.485639, "fair_value": 30.245868, "relative_strength": -8.96097, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.034388, "energy": 13.130269, "activity_lines": [ 34.344669, 34.907456, 34.781096, 34.624062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.700001, "volume": 33600, "typical_volume": 11205.0, "trend": 34.432141, "fair_value": 30.268568, "relative_strength": -15.031371, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.66914, "energy": 34.756971, "activity_lines": [ 33.455335, 34.204365, 34.531358, 34.444343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.1, "volume": 11900, "typical_volume": 10930.0, "trend": 34.340334, "fair_value": 30.286598, "relative_strength": -16.463904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.658681, "energy": 65.51955, "activity_lines": [ 32.532668, 33.503456, 34.245239, 34.229366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.560001, "volume": 11600, "typical_volume": 11055.0, "trend": 34.286834, "fair_value": 30.324766, "relative_strength": -11.83864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.880903, "energy": 65.650153, "activity_lines": [ 32.378668, 33.178547, 34.109072, 34.114506 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.310001, "volume": 10900, "typical_volume": 11085.0, "trend": 34.245167, "fair_value": 30.382013, "relative_strength": -9.73492, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.688583, "energy": 53.854505, "activity_lines": [ 32.842668, 33.251819, 34.138191, 34.116001 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }