{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9903826f-67ab-4ca4-8af8-87c7d7f38db7", "symbol": "GOLF", "name": "Acushnet Holdings Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 93.424, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.177, "architecture_energy": 15.833, "architecture_maturity": 57.456, "architecture_confidence": 76.55, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.68, "rotation_up": 21.86, "upward_expansion": 61.32, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 33.99, "downward_expansion": 15.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.717333, 105.797091, 101.964068, 100.092821 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 93.29, "trend_reference": 98.248608, "distance_from_trend": -0.05047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 72.340148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289602, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.637326, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.076187, "excess_performance": -0.201812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05047, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086618, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289602, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051763, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054748, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.076187, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.124991, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2624554, "relative_activity": 1.615414, "balance": 1.124991, "dry_up": 1.01497, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105611, "annualized_volatility": 0.363764, "from_high_reference": -0.220309, "from_low_reference": 0.294927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 98.248608, "fair_value_reference": 72.340148, "structural_low": 83.712814, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006478, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.021393, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.092889, "worst_return": -0.098573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.084204, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.032838, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.28488, "worst_return": -0.040338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.119095, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.021224, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.255053, "worst_return": -0.002429, "sufficient": 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.115917, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064453, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", 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98.389722 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 114.78, "volume": 1255688, "typical_volume": 1692257.1, "trend": 96.642173, "fair_value": 71.468662, "relative_strength": 18.70489, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.692145, "energy": 83.569798, "activity_lines": [ 114.215333, 107.91521, 101.643257, 99.630402 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.66, "volume": 1133057, "typical_volume": 1639325.1, "trend": 97.378338, "fair_value": 71.787824, "relative_strength": 8.670952, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.84913, "energy": 50.622371, "activity_lines": [ 111.179333, 108.419427, 102.262055, 100.147682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.27, "volume": 1582763, "typical_volume": 1600871.8, "trend": 98.032002, "fair_value": 72.07861, "relative_strength": 3.834232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.302588, "energy": 29.834913, "activity_lines": [ 107.218, 107.952712, 102.51333, 100.398757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.29, "volume": 2624554, "typical_volume": 1624693.9, "trend": 98.248608, "fair_value": 72.340148, "relative_strength": -7.637326, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.17746, "energy": 15.833244, "activity_lines": [ 101.717333, 105.797091, 101.964068, 100.092821 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }