{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9904a3e3-e6ac-44cb-89a3-e22a9e481393", "symbol": "FEBB-F", "name": "First Trust Vest U.S. Equity Buffer ETF - February", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.919, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.88, "architecture_energy": 72.759, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.444, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 60.37, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 57.0, "rotation_down": 28.91, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.904001, 55.738909, 55.40481, 54.760215 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 56.5, "trend_reference": 53.974, "distance_from_trend": 0.0468, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 46.727564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209136, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.789979, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086121, "excess_performance": -0.034301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02518, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.209136, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003714, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086121, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.421053, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1500, "relative_activity": 2.0, "balance": 2.421053, "dry_up": 1.166667, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007597, "annualized_volatility": 0.07067, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.140953 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.974, "fair_value_reference": 46.727564, "structural_low": 50.139999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of 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"2023-12-08", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.059877, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033748, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008108, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005132, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.043088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03558, "active": false }, { 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53.886839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 55.619999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9465.0, "trend": 53.354333, "fair_value": 46.166154, "relative_strength": -4.563168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.371957, "energy": 62.16073, "activity_lines": [ 55.421999, 55.391091, 54.622095, 54.04114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.860001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 9265.0, "trend": 53.483, "fair_value": 46.279038, "relative_strength": -4.055113, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.569642, "energy": 76.214162, "activity_lines": [ 55.560667, 55.499818, 54.809048, 54.202796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.779999, "volume": 1900, "typical_volume": 9250.0, "trend": 53.613333, "fair_value": 46.390577, "relative_strength": -3.836366, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.801612, "energy": 82.782861, "activity_lines": [ 55.667333, 55.569273, 54.974619, 54.350989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9145.0, "trend": 53.718, "fair_value": 46.497884, "relative_strength": -4.515931, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.185829, "energy": 76.915976, "activity_lines": [ 55.604, 55.552727, 55.091286, 54.466258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.610001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 890.0, "trend": 53.835667, "fair_value": 46.609295, "relative_strength": -3.485018, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.585406, "energy": 72.910116, "activity_lines": [ 55.622001, 55.567455, 55.214619, 54.588323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.5, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 750.0, "trend": 53.974, "fair_value": 46.727564, "relative_strength": -4.789979, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.879635, "energy": 72.759228, "activity_lines": [ 55.904001, 55.738909, 55.40481, 54.760215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }