{ "ticker": { "uuid": "990d685d-efde-44ba-b231-96583ae12cbd", "symbol": "4165", "name": "Al Majed Oud Co.", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.119, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.733, "architecture_energy": 90.382, "architecture_maturity": 21.053, "architecture_confidence": 76.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 8.85, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 84.48, "downward_expansion": 99.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.673335, 125.745456, 131.819383, 137.452955 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 119.5, "trend_reference": 142.799534, "distance_from_trend": -0.163163, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 136.534074, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.124761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.463403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23649, "excess_performance": -0.20466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.163163, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.124761, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073671, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059482, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23649, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.661827, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 196131, "relative_activity": 0.614588, "balance": 1.661827, "dry_up": 0.478775, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046588, "annualized_volatility": 0.248221, "from_high_reference": -0.285677, "from_low_reference": 0.156747 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.799534, "fair_value_reference": 136.534074, "structural_low": 117.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118675, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015369, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038405, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.081139, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 129.100006, "volume": 178986, "typical_volume": 335963.95, "trend": 143.727285, "fair_value": 137.230121, "relative_strength": -3.335267, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.042513, "energy": 59.41672, "activity_lines": [ 133.873335, 135.147199, 140.426533, 143.386439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 123.300003, "volume": 129839, "typical_volume": 327195.85, "trend": 143.759379, "fair_value": 137.080334, "relative_strength": -6.740817, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.375676, "energy": 81.46517, "activity_lines": [ 129.646668, 133.020001, 138.28132, 142.06855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 120.300003, "volume": 155736, "typical_volume": 313484.8, "trend": 143.464922, "fair_value": 136.90182, "relative_strength": -9.549582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.475285, "energy": 89.078677, "activity_lines": [ 125.573336, 130.476365, 136.030747, 140.555042 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.0, "volume": 129452, "typical_volume": 313855.85, "trend": 143.117421, "fair_value": 136.71338, "relative_strength": -8.725302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.66027, "energy": 91.954339, "activity_lines": [ 122.413335, 127.916365, 133.822802, 138.97666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.5, "volume": 196131, "typical_volume": 319125.95, "trend": 142.799534, "fair_value": 136.534074, "relative_strength": -10.463403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.732989, "energy": 90.381524, "activity_lines": [ 120.673335, 125.745456, 131.819383, 137.452955 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }